Tea Annual Review October 2009
CRISIL Ltd.
October 30, 2009 212 Pages - SKU: CRSL2505087
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Simultaneous lower production in India, Kenya and Sri Lanka pushing up prices
India, Kenya and Sri Lanka are the largest producers and exporters of black tea. In the first half of 2009, production had declined by 3 per cent in India, 12 per cent in Kenya and 24 per cent in Sri Lanka compared to the first half of 2008. For the full year, production in these countries is expected to be lower in 2009 as compared to 2008, due to unfavourable weather, while consumption continues to grow at a steady pace. This has resulted in a tightening of the global demand-supply scenario and is pushing up tea prices.
Production to be lower in 2009, but increase over the next two years
CRISIL Research expects tea production in India to be lower by 1 per cent in 2009 (compared to 2008) due to poor monsoon across the country. Although production had declined by 3 per cent in H12009, it improved in July and August. During January-August 2009, production in north India was lower by 0.3 per cent vis-à-vis same period last year, while production in South India was lower by 2 per cent. Going forward, production is likely to increase by 5 per cent in 2010 to 1,020 million kg, and further increase to 1,040 million kg in 2011 (assuming normal weather in both years). This rise will also be the result of plantations made in 1998-2000 and in 2005 (as production rises when bushes are 5-10 years old and peaks when bushes are 11-20 years old).
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- Sections
- Decline in production pushing up prices; industry profitability to improve
- Executive summary
- 1.0 Production to cross 1 billion kg in 2010
- 2.0 Consumption growth to slow down marginally
- 3.0 Prices to continue rising in 2009 and 2010
- 4.0 Industry profitability to improve
- Charts
- 4.0 Industry profitability to improve
- 01 Tea value chain
- 02 Price impact on different category of players
- Figures
- 1.0 Production to cross 1 billion kg in 2010
- 01 Production to cross 1 billion in 2010
- 02 Increase in area under plantation
- 03 Yield in different age groups (as of 2008)
- 04 Production - 2008, 2009 and 2010
- 2.0 Consumption growth to slow down marginally
- 01 Consumption growth to slow down
- 02 Tea drinking population growth to slow down marginally
- 03 Per capita consumption growth to remain steady
- 04 Exports by India and Kenya
- 3.0 Prices to continue rising in 2009 and 2010
- 01 Global tea demand to outstrip supply in 2009
- 02 Prices rising with decline in inventory levels
- 03 Prices in Re terms and dollar terms
- 4.0 Industry profitability to improve
- 01 Trends in tea prices and profitability
- Tables
- Executive summary
- 01 Tightening demand-supply position
- 1.0 Production to cross 1 billion kg in 2010
- 01 Age profile of tea bushes
- 2.0 Consumption growth to slow down marginally
- 01 Tea export scenario in H12009
- 3.0 Prices to continue rising in 2009 and 2010
- 01 Domestic demand-supply situation
- Sections
- 1.0 Industry structure
- Size of the industry
- Industry segmentation
- Industry characteristics
- 2.0 Products and process
- Product classification
- Market classification
- 3.0 Manufacturing process Drying
- 4.0 Demand supply and prices
- Supply determinants
- Production trends
- Import trends
- Demand determinants
- Trends in auction sales
- Trends in auction prices
- Interlinkages between demand, supply and prices
- 5.0 Domestic branded tea market
- Growth in the packaged tea market
- Key brands
- Player market shares
- Player strategies in the branded tea market
- 6.0 Government policy
- Introduction to the regulatory framework
- Regulations
- Taxation
- Exim policy
- 7.0 Global scenario
- Exports
- Imports
- Duty rates in major producing and importing nations
- 8.0 Industry performance
- Introduction
- Performance
- Trend in costs and profitability
- Key success factors
- Charts
- 2.0 Products and process
- 01 Classification of tea
- 3.0 Manufacturing process
- 01 Tea manufacturing process
- Figures
- 1.0 Industry structure
- 01 Monthly production in 2008 02 June - October — Period of high production activity
- 4.0 Demand supply and prices
- 01 1998-2000 - Period of high growth in area under cultivation
- 02 Production growth from 2003-2008
- 03 Production shift in favour of CTC in North India
- 04 Reversal of trend from orthodox to CTC in South India
- 05 Impact on exports of the disintegration of USSR
- 06 Prices inversely related to percentage of produce sold through auctions
- 07 Trends in retention and auction prices
- 7.0 Global scenario
- 01 Trends in export share of major tea producing nations
- 02 Volume share of major tea importing nations (per cent)
- 03 Tea International auction prices (USD/kg)
- 8.0 Industry performance
- 01 Cost structure of integrated players
- 02 Trends in manpower costs
- 03 Interest burden
- 04 Players in the branded segment have highest realisations
- 05 Operating margin from 1998-99 to 2008-09
- Tables
- 1.0 Industry structure
- 01 Size of the industry
- 02 Region-wise production
- 03 Corporate presence Plantation players
- Tables
- 2.0 Products and process
- 01 Classification of tea Manufacturing process
- 02 Classification of black tea
- 03 Grades of black tea
- 4.0 Demand supply and prices
- 01 Tea Yield per hectare
- 02 Tea Region-wise temperature zone
- 03 Tea Area under cultivation (hectares)
- 04 Tea Category-wise production
- 05 Tea imports
- 06 Consumption
- 07 Tea Per capita consumption in 2003
- 08 Tea Destination-wise exports
- 09 Tea Product-wise exports
- 10 Share in world exports (market share and quantities in million kg)
- 11 Imports of major consuming nations
- 12 Major consuming nations Percentage of imports supplied by India
- 13 India’s position in major export markets
- 14 Tea Category wise Indian auction prices
- 15 Factors influencing tea prices
- 16 Supply and price scenarios
- 5.0 Domestic branded tea market
- 01 Industry segments
- 02 Key brands
- 03 Brand information National brands
- 04 Domestic branded tea market players (March 2009)
- 05 Other regional brands
- 6.0 Government policy
- 01 Tea Permissible limits of impurities
- 02 Agricultural income tax rates
- 03 Tea Excise duty rates
- 04 Cess rates Assam and West Bengal
- 05 Assam VAT on tea w.e.f. April 1, 2005
- 06 West Bengal VAT on tea w.e.f. April 1, 2005
- 07 VAT
- 08 Tea Customs duty rates on end products
- Tables
- 7.0 Global scenario
- 01 Tea Global production
- 02 Tea Country-wise exports
- 03 Tea Exports from China
- 04 Tea Exports from Kenya
- 05 Tea Exports from Sri Lanka
- 06 Imports for consumption (million kg)
- 07 Tea Duty rates in key producing countries
- 08 Tea Duty rates in key importing countries
- 8.0 Industry performance
- 01 Industry segments
- 02 Sales value
- 03 Sales quantity
- 04 Sales mix of leading players
- 05 Tea Cost aggregates
- 06 Inter-firm comparison
- Tables
- 01 Trends in production, consumption, exports, auction sales and prices
- 02 Tea State-wise and district-wise production
- 03 Monthly production figures North India
- 04 Monthly production figures South India
- 05 Average North India auction prices
- 06 Average South India auction prices
- 07 District-wise auction sales
- 08 Origin-wise auction sales
- 09 Price trend at the auction centres
- 10 Tea Global area under tea and yield
- 11 Tea Country-wise break-up of world auction sales
- 12 Assam Co: Financial & operating performance
- 13 Dhunseri Tea & Industries Financial & operating performance
- 14 Harrisons Malayalam Financial & operating performance
- 15 Goodricke Group Financial & operating performance
- 16 Jay Shree Tea & Industries Financial & operating performance
- 17 Mcleod Russel India Financial & operating performance
- 18 Parry Agro Industries Financial & operating performance
- 19 Rossell & Industries Financial & operating performance
- 20 Tata Tea Financial & operating performance
- 21 Warren Tea Financial & operating performance
- 22 Hindustan Unilever Operating performance Industry statistics
- Sections
- Prices to decline in 2009, but rise in 2010 as demand-supply gap shrinks
- Executive summary
- 1.0 Global production to fall in 2009, rise in 2010
- Global production
- Domestic production
- 2.0 Consumption to grow at a marginally slower pace
- Global consumption
- Domestic consumption
- 3.0 Demand-supply gap to tighten further
- Global demand-supply gap to tighten
- Domestic production to increase
- 4.0 Prices to decline in 2009 and rise in 2010
- Boxes
- 2.0 Consumption to grow at a marginally slower pace
- 01 Consumption forecast: Methodology
- Figures
- 1.0 Global production to fall in 2009, rise in 2010
- 01 Global production to decline in 2009-10 and rise in 2010-11
- 02 Biennial trend in Brazilian Arabica production
- 03 Vietnamese coffee production
- 04 Columbian coffee production
- 05 Indian production
- 2.0 Consumption to grow at a marginally slower pace
- 01 Steady growth in global coffee consumption
- 02 Growth in consumption higher in producing countries
- 03 Consumption growth to slow down marginally
- 04 Coffee drinking population growth to slow down
- 05 Per capita consumption growth to accelerate
- 3.0 Demand-supply gap to tighten further
- 01 Global demand - supply gap
- 4.0 Prices to decline in 2009 and rise in 2010
- 01 Effect of currency appreciation /depreciation
- 02 Depleting Inventory levels
- 03 Movement of coffee prices vis-à-vis Indian rupee
- 04 Trends in coffee prices in dollar and rupee terms
- Tables
- 3.0 Demand-supply gap to tighten further
- 01 Global demand - supply situation
- 02 Indian demand - supply situation
- 4.0 Prices to decline in 2009 and rise in 2010
- 01 Trends in coffee prices
- Sections
- 1.0 Industry structure
- Industry size and segmentation
- Industry characteristics
- 2.0 Products and processes
- Product classification
- Market classification
- Manufacturing process
- 3.0 Demand supply and prices
- Demand
- Supply
- Prices
- India’s SWOT in the export market
- 4.0 Government policies
- Coffee Act, 1942
- The Coffee Board
- Export promotion and other financing schemes of the government
- Labour laws
- 5.0 Global scenario
- International price trends
- International Coffee Agreement, 2001
- Global consumption
- Trend in international coffee trade
- 6.0 Player profiles
- Inter-firm comparison
- Industry performance
- Chart
- 5.0 Global scenario
- 01 ICO’s composite price
- Figures
- 1.0 Industry structure
- 01 Seasonality of production
- 3.0 Demand supply and prices
- 01 Trends in exports
- 02 Indian coffee production (million kg)
- 03 Domestic grower’s prices in line with international prices (U.S. cents per pound)
- 5.0 Global scenario
- 01 Composite indicator price
- Tables
- 1.0 Industry structure
- 01 Coffee Category-wise and state-wise production
- 02 Coffee — District-wise production
- 03 Number, area and share of production of coffee under different sizes of coffee holdings in India 2007-08
- 04 Estimated state-wise distribution pattern of holdings in 2007-08* (Numbers)
- 05 Region-wise coffee consumption (in terms of tonnes of beans) 2005
- 2.0 Products and processes
- 01 Classification of coffee by screen size
- 3.0 Demand supply and prices
- 01 Domestic consumption (million tonnes)
- 02 Indian coffee exports Volume (tonnes)
- 03 Exports of coffee from India by countries 1996-97 - 2008-09 ('000 tonnes)
- 04 Coffee Trend in yield (Bearing area)
- 05 Coffee State-wise planted area, production & yield (2007-08)*
- 06 Area under cultivation
- 07 Area and share of production of coffee under different sizes of coffee holdings in India 2007-08*
- 4.0 Government policies
- Tables
- 5.0 Global scenario
- 01 Trend in global production (in million kg)
- 02 Major coffee producing nations (Production by crop years)
- 03 Key producers of Arabica and Robusta varieties
- 04 Trend in global consumption
- 05 Domestic consumption of exporting members (by crop years)
- 06 Imports of importing members of the ICO (By calendar year)
- 07 Exports of exporting members (By crop year)
- 6.0 Player profiles
- Tables
- 01 Coffee area, production and productivity
- 02 Production and exports India & the world
- 03 Coffee District-wise production
- 04 Robusta District-wise production in India
- 05 Indian coffee exports
- 06 Indian coffee exports
- 07 Coffee ICO Composite Indicator price
- 08 Per capita consumption in ICO member countries
- 09 Tata Coffee Financial & operating performance
- 10 Nestle India Operating performance
- 11 Hindustan Unilever Operating performance
- 12 Amalgamated Bean Coffee Trading Co Operating performance Industry statistics
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