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Commercial Vehicles Annual Review August 2009

CRISIL Ltd.
August 31, 2009
120 Pages - SKU: CRSL2433741

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Domestic CV goods segment to bounce back in next 5 years The commercial vehicles (CV) industry had a challenging time in 2008-09, with significant degrowth across all segments. However, better performance of the light commercial vehicles (LCV) segment (decline of 7.6 per cent) against the medium and heavy commercial vehicles (MHCV) segment (plunge of 36.5 per cent) protected the CV industry from a much higher fall. Degrowth witnessed in 2008-09 in the MHCV goods segment is expected to continue till 2009-10, post which, we expect positive growth for the sector. CRISIL Research estimates the domestic CV goods segment to grow at a CAGR of 8-10 per cent in the next 5 years. The LCV segment is estimated to grow at a CAGR of 10-12 per cent, primarily driven by the growth in smaller goods vehicles such as the sub-one tonne category. On the other hand, the domestic MHCV segment is estimated to grow at a CAGR of 6-8 per cent, on the back of GDP growth, infrastructure development and shift towards higher tonnage vehicles.

Sections
Strong LCV demand to drive growth in commercial vehicles
Executive summary: 1.0 Goods vehicles; 2.0 Bus demand; 3.0 Financial profile
Boxes: 1.0 Goods vehicles; 1 Demand forecasting methodology for MHCV goods segment; 2 Framework for determination of LCV demand; 03 Outlook for three-wheeler market; 2.0 Bus demand; 01 Framework for determining demand for MHCV buses
Charts: 1.0 Goods vehicles; 01 Demand analysis framework; 2.0 Bus demand; 01 Classification of buses
Figures: 1.0 Goods vehicles; 01 Domestic truck sales volume growth; 02 Tonnage share of population (installed capacity); 03 Tonnage share on incremental basis (payload sales); 04 IIP growth; 05 MHCV capacity utilisation levels; 06 Drop in capacity utilisation led to significant fall in transporters' profitability; 07 Trend in freight rates and diesel prices; 08 LCV sales volumes; 09 SCVs payload sales trend; 10 SCVs tonnage capacity trend; 11 Sales trend of domestic three-wheeler market; 12 Market share in domestic three-wheeler goods market as of March 2009; 13 Estimated regional break-up of LCV sales; 14 LCV population across regions; 15 Estimated break-up of LCV population across regions; 2.0 Bus demand; 01 Sales trend of domestic MHCV buses; 02 Sales trend of domestic LCV buses; 03 Bus penetration; 3.0 Financial profile; 01 Sales volumes and operating income; 02 Trends in operating margins; 03 Trends in asset turnover ratio; 04 Trends in gross working capital cycle; 05 Trends in debtor days; 06 Trends in RoCE; 07 Trends in gearing; 08 Trends in interest coverage ratio; 09 Trends in net cash accruals-to-debt ratio
Tables: 1.0 Goods vehicles; 01 Domestic sales volume outlook; 02 Risk spectrum in CV finance; 03 MHCV volume growth outlook; 04 LCV volume growth outlook; 05 Key markets for LCVs in southern India; 06 Key markets for LCVs in western India; 07 Key markets for LCVs in northern and eastern India; 08 Regional outlook for LCV density; 2.0 Bus demand; 01 Demand drivers for route-based classification of buses; 02 Demand drivers for user-based classification of buses; 03 Demand drivers for ownership-based classification of buses; 04 Demand drivers for vehicle-based classification of buses; 3.0 Financial profile; 01 Break-up of cost as a percentage of operating income
Sections: 1.0 Industry characteristics; 2.0 Structure of CV industry; 3.0 Cost and margins; 4.0 Commercial vehicle exports; 5.0 Key international markets; 6.0 CV finance industry; 7.0 Product profile; 8.0 Regulations; 9.0 Domestic player profiles
Figures: 1.0 Industry characteristics; 01 Volatile CV sales growth; 3.0 Cost and margins; 01 Operating margins across players; 02 Raw material cost as percentage of operating income - Industry aggregates; 03 Movement in raw material, creditor days - Industry aggregates; 04 Employee cost as per cent of operating income; 05 Selling expenses; 4.0 Commercial vehicle exports; 01 Export volumes (Goods vehicles); 02 Export volumes (Passenger vehicles); 6.0 CV finance industry; 01 Portfolio mix - 2007-08E; 02 Portfolio mix - 2008-09E; 10.0 International player profiles; 01 Regional distribution of revenue: Daimler Trucks, 2008; 02 Revenue growth: Daimler Trucks; 03 Regional distribution of volume: Daimler Trucks, 2008; 04 Volume growth: Daimler Trucks; 05 Revenue distribution (Consolidated FY2008); 06 Segmental break-up - Japanese sales (Units); 07 Regional distribution (Units): 2008; 08 Segment-wise distribution of sales (Units): 2008; 09 Volume growth; 10 Revenue distribution: 2008; 10.0 International player profiles; 11 Revenue growth across regions; 12 Revenue distribution: 2008; 13 Revenue growth across regions; 14 Revenue distribution: 2008; 15 Revenue growth across regions; 16 Segmental distribution in 2008; 17 Regional distribution (Units) in 2008; 18 Volume growth across regions (Units)
Tables: 1.0 Industry characteristics; 01 Commercial vehicles - Penetration (2007); 2.0 Structure of CV industry; 01 Light commercial vehicles (Goods) - Market share; 02 Medium and heavy commercial vehicles (Goods) - Market share; 03 Light commercial vehicles (Passenger) - Market share; 04 Medium and heavy commercial vehicles (Passenger) - Market share; 4.0 Commercial vehicle exports; 01 Player-wise export volumes; 02 Commercial vehicles - Gross vehicle weight-wise export market segmentation; 5.0 Key international markets; 01 Comparison of commercial vehicles across countries for 2007; 6.0 CV finance industry; 01 New CV finance industry; 7.0 Product profile; 01 Goods vehicles - Category-wise vehicle usage; 02 LCV (Goods vehicles) - <=3.5 tonnes GVW (0.7-2 tonnes pay load); 03 Market share of LCV (Goods vehicles): <=3.5 tonnes GVW category; 04 LCV (Goods vehicles): <3.5 tonnes and <=5 tonnes GVW (2.5 - 3 tonnes pay load); 05 LCV (Goods vehicles): >5 tonnes and <=7.5 tonnes GVW (3 - 4 tonnes pay load); 06 ICV (Goods vehicles): >7.5 tonnes and <=12 tonnes GVW (5 - 10 tonnes pay load); 07 Market share of ICV (Goods vehicles): 7.5 to 12 tonnes GVW category; 7.0 Product profile; 08 MHCV (Goods vehicles): >12 tonnes and <=16.2 tonnes GVW; (11 - 13 tonnes pay load); 09 Market share of MCV (Goods vehicles): 12 to 16.2 tonnes GVW category; 10 MHCV (Goods vehicles): >=16.2 tonnes and<=25 tonnes GVW (17 - 20 tonnes pay load); 11 Market share of MAV (Goods vehicles): 16.2 to 25 tonnes GVW category; 12 MHCV (Goods vehicles): >25 tonnes and <=35.2 tonnes GVW (20-30 tonnes pay load); 13 MHCV (Goods vehicles): >35.2 tonnes GVW (28-40 tonnes pay load); 14 Market share of MAV (Goods vehicles): 25 tonnes and above GVW category; 15 Tippers (Goods vehicles); 16 Market share of tractor trailers (Goods vehicles): 25 tonnes and above GVW category; 17 LCV (Passenger vehicles): <=5 tonnes GVW; 18 LCV (Passenger vehicles): >5 tonnes and <=7.5 tonnes GVW; 19 MHCV (Passenger vehicles):>7.5 tonnes and <=12 tonnes GVW; 20 MHCV (Passenger vehicles):>=12 tonnes GVW; 8.0 Regulations; 01 Emission regulations in India: Chronology; 02 Emission norms for heavy vehicles; 03 Road map for new vehicles; 04 Maximum allowable load limits; 05 Commercial vehicles - Tariffs; 9.0 Domestic player profiles; 01 Ashok Leyland Ltd; 02 Force Motors Ltd; 03 Eicher Motors Ltd; 04 Mahindra & Mahindra Ltd; 05 Swaraj Mazda Ltd; 06 Tata Motors Ltd; 07 Volvo India Ltd; 10.0 International player profiles; 01 Daimler AG; 02 Hino Motors; 03 IVECO; 04 PACCAR; 05 Scania AB; 06 MAN AG; 07 VOLVO
Tables: 01 Commercial vehicles: Physical aggregates; 02 Commercial vehicle total sales (including exports); 03 Commercial vehicle domestic sales; 04 Goods vehicles domestic sales; 05 Goods vehicles exports; 06 Passenger vehicle domestic sales; 07 Passenger vehicle exports; 08 LCV goods vehicles market share; 09 MHCV goods vehicles market share; 10 LCV passenger vehicles market share; 11 MHCV passenger vehicle market share; 12 Commercial vehicles sales: Global comparison; Industry statistics

Commercial Vehicles Annual Review August 2009

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