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Coal Annual Review November 2009

CRISIL Ltd.
December 1, 2009
172 Pages - SKU: CRSL2517256

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Coking coal prices to rise due to supply constraints, infrastructure bottlenecks During 2008, international coking coal prices trebled to $269 per tonne on account of robust demand from the steel sector and supply disruptions due to unfavourable weather conditions in Australia. However, the global economic downturn has led to a sharp fall in steel production, thereby impacting demand for coking coal. During the first half of 2009, average prices of coking coal were at $135-140 per tonne.

CRISIL Research expects coking coal prices to average at around $140-145 per tonne in 2009, and remain strong and rise to $190-195 per tonne by 2013. Between 2008 and 2013, world coking coal consumption is forecast to grow at a CAGR of 2.5 per cent. Production, on the other hand, is expected to increase only at a CAGR of 1.3 per cent because of supply constraints and infrastructure bottlenecks expected in countries like China and Australia.

Sections
Supply constraints compel domestic players to scout for coal mines abroad
Executive summary: 1.0 Coking coal prices to rise due to infrastructure bottlenecks impeding supply; 2.0 India to be second-largest importer of non-coking coal by 2013; 3.0 Indian coal imports to treble by 2013-14 due to widening non-coking coal deficit; 4.0 Indonesia - Most cost-effective source of non-coking coal for India; International coal trade dominated by Pacific region; Delivered cost of Indonesian coal currently at $41-43; Landed cost of South African coal at $ 63-65 per tonne; Landed cost of Australian coal at $ 72-73 per tonne; Domestic coal remains cheapest option available; Power plants using Indonesian coal likely to witness lowest tariffs
Charts: 1.0 Coking coal prices to rise due to infrastructure bottlenecks impeding supply; 2.0 India to be second-largest importer of non-coking coal by 2013
Charts: 4.0 Indonesia - Most cost-effective source of non-coking coal for India
Figures: 1.0 Irrigation infrastructure in India; 2.0 India to be second-largest importer of non-coking coal by 2013; 3.0 Coal imports to treble by 2013-14 due to widening non-coking coal deficit; 4.0 Indonesia - Most cost-effective source of non-coking coal for India
Tables
Executive summary: 1 Indonesian coal emerges as the cheapest option to source non-coking coal from abroad; 1.0 Irrigation infrastructure in India; 2.0 India to be second-largest importer of non-coking coal by 2013; 3.0 Coal imports to treble by 2013-14 due to widening non-coking coal deficit; 4.0 Indonesia - Most cost-effective source of non-coking coal for India
Sections: 1.0 Background; 2.0 Policies and regulations; 3.0 Domestic demand-supply situation; 4.0 Industry structure and domestic player profiles; 5.0 International scenario; 6.0 International player profile; 7.0 Pricing; 8.0 Logistics; 9.0 Lignite; 10.0 Coal mining techniques; 11.0 Coal washing; 12.0 Environmental issues
Boxs: 1.0 Background; 1 Abundance, distribution and affordability of coal; 11.0 Coal washing; 1 Coal washing process; 2 Clean development mechanism cycle
Charts: 1.0 Background; 1 Evolution of coal; 2 Types of coal; 4.0 Industry structure and domestic player profiles; 1 Industry structure; 5.0 International scenario; 1 World top coal producer in 2008; 11.0 Coal washing; 1 Coal washing
Figures: 1.0 Background; 1 World coal reserves - 2008 (826 billion tonnes); 2 Fuel prices; 3 Fuel consumption in India - 2008 (433.4 mtoe); 4 Total energy and coal production trend; 5 Coal reserves as of April 2009 (267.2 billion tonnes); 6 Proven coal reserves as of April 2009 (105.8 billion tonnes); 7 Proven non-coking reserves as of January 2006; 8 Proven coking coal reserves; 9 State-wise distribution of proven reserves - April 2007 (98.5 billion tonnes); 3.0 Domestic demand-supply situation; 1 Coal production - 2007-08 (457 million tonnes); 2 Coal production - 2008-09 (493 million tonnes); 3 Coal consumption - 2007-08 (505.1 million tonnes); 4 Coal consumption - 2008-09 (550 million tonnes); 5 Sector-wise offtake of domestic coal - 2007-08 (454.5 million tonnes); 6 Sector-wise offtake of domestic coal - 2008-09 (489.8 million tonnes); 5.0 International scenario; 1 Fuel-wise consumption in million tonnes oil equivalent (2007); 2 Fuel-wise consumption in million tonnes oil equivalent (2008); 3 Worldwide fuel consumption - 2007 (11104.4 mtoe); 4 Worldwide fuel consumption - 2008 (11294.9 mtoe); 5 World coal reserves - 2007 (847 billion tonnes); 6 World coal reserves - 2008 (826 billion tonnes); 7 Australia - Production and consumption trend in 2000-08; 8 Fuel consumption in Australia-2007 (123.2 mtoe); 9 Fuel consumption in Australia-2008 (118.3 mtoe); 10 Industry-wise consumption in 2006; 11 Australia - Coal exports in 2007-08* (252.3 MT); 12 Share in production of major coal companies in Australia in 2007 (393.9 MT)
Figures: 5.0 International scenario; 13 China - Production and consumption trend (2000-2008); 14 Fuel consumption in China - 2007 (1863.4 mtoe); 15 Fuel consumption in China - 2008 (2002.5 mtoe); 16 Share in production of major coal companies in China in 2007 (2536.7 mt); 17 Indonesia - Production and consumption trend in 2000-08; 18 Fuel consumption in Indonesia - 2007 (117.9 mtoe); 19 Fuel consumption in Indonesia - 2008 (124 mtoe); 20 Indonesia - Coal consumption in 2004 (117.9 mtoe); 21 Share in production of major coal producers in Indonesia in 2006 (181.1 MTt); 22 United States - Production and consumption trend (2000-08); 23 Fuel consumption in US-2007 (2,361 mtoe); 24 Fuel consumption in US-2008 (2,299 mtoe); 25 Industry-wise coal consumption in 2007; 26 Share of major coal producers in production in US in 2006 (1,054.8 MT); 27 South Africa - Production and consumption trend (2000-2008); 28 Fuel consumption in South Africa - 2007 (127.8 mtoe); 29 Fuel consumption in South Africa - 2008 (132.3 mtoe); 30 Industry-wise coal consumption (127.8 mtoe); 31 Share in production of major coal companies in South Africa in 2007 (269.4 MT); 32 Japan - Production and consumption trend (2000-2008); 33 Fuel consumption in Japan - 2007 (515.8 mtoe); 34 Fuel consumption in Japan - 2008 (508 mtoe); 35 Fuel consumption in South Korea - 2007 (236 mtoe); 36 Fuel consumption in South Korea - 2008 (240 mtoe); 37 Fuel consumption in Russia - 2007 (680 mtoe); 38 Fuel consumption in Russia - 2008 (684 mtoe); 7.0 Pricing; 1 Figure 1: E-auction: Quantity offered and sold (Apr 2008-Mar 2009); 2 E-auction: Trend in prices of non-coking coal (Apr 2008-Mar 2009); 3 International coal prices - FOB; 8.0 Logistics; 1 Domestic coal transportation (2007-08); 2 Coal traffic at ports in 2007-08; 3 Coal traffic at major ports in 2007-08; 4 Coal traffic at minor ports: 2007-08; 5 Port capacities; 8.0 Logistics; 6 Average turnaround time - Coking coal (2007-08); 7 Average turnaround time - Thermal Coal (2007-08); 8 Dedicated coal capacity at major ports as on March 31, 2008; 9 Average pre-berthing time - Coking coal (2007-08); 10 Average pre-berthing Time - Thermal coal (2007-08); 9.0 Lignite; 1 Lignite production (1999-2000 to 2008-09); 11.0 Coal washing; 1 Properties of different grades of non-coking coal; 2 Non-coking coal washeries in India (total capacity - 112.15 MT)
Tables
Background: 1 Type-wise, category-wise coal resources in India as of April 1, 2009; 2 Coking coal grades; 3 Semi-coking coal and weakly coking coal; 4 Non-coking coal grades; 3.0 Domestic demand-supply situation; 1 Company-wise coal production; 2 Underground and opencast production by CIL; 3 Company-wise coal production - CIL; 4 Trend in production; 5 Consumer-wise offtake of domestic coal; 6 Coal imports in India; 4.0 Industry structure and domestic player profiles; 1 Profitability of CIL companies; 2 Eastern Coalfields Ltd (ECL); 3 ECL - Key financial indicators; 4 BCCL - Project details; 5 Bharat Coking Coal Ltd (BCCL); 6 BCCL - Key financial indicators; 7 CCL - Project details; 8 Central Coalfields Ltd; 9 CCL - Key financial indicators; 10 Projects of NCL
Tables: 4.0 Industry structure and domestic player profiles; 11 Northern Coalfield Ltd (NCL); 12 NCL - Key financial indicators; 13 Western Coalfields Ltd (WCL); 14 WCL - Key financial indicators; 15 SECL - Project details; 16 South Eastern Coal Ltd (SECL); 17 SECL - Key financial indicators; 18 MCL - Project details; 19 Mahanadi Coalfields Ltd (MCL); 20 MCL - Key financial indicators; 21 Singareni Coalfield Ltd (SCCL); 22 SCCL - Key financial indicators; 5.0 International scenario; 1 Region-wise energy consumption; 2 Coal production and proven reserves - 2007; 3 Coal production and proven reserves - 2008; 4 Coal production; 5 Worldwide coal consumption; 6 Coal in electricity generation - 2006E; 7 Major coal exporters; 8 Major coal importers; 9 Australia: Port capacity and export loadings in 2006-07 and 2007-08; 6.0 International player profile; 1 Peabody Energy - Region-wise coal production and reserves in 2008; 2 Peabody Energy - Operational and financial performance; 3 Rio Tinto - Operational and financial performance; 4 China Shenhua Energy Company Ltd - Reserves and coal production in 2008; 5 China Shenhua Energy Company Ltd - Operational and financial performance; 6 Arch Coal - Region-wise coal and reserves in 2008; 7 Arch Coal - Operational and financial performance; 8 BHP Billiton - Operational and financial performanc; 7.0 Pricing; 1 Coal - Final prices to consumer; 2 Royalty charges; 3 Royalty charges w.e.f. from August 2007; 8.0 Logistics; 1 Rail freights; 2 Ongoing projects for strengthening Golden Quadrilateral; 3 Ongoing port connectivity projects; 9.0 Logistics; 1 Lignite reserves in India; 2 Neyveli Lignite Corporation: Income statement; 3 Neyveli Lignite Corporation: Key financial indicators; 11.0 Coal washing; 1 Properties of coal in different countries; 2 Washeries to be set up on Build-Operate-Maintain basis by 2011-12; 3 Gupta Coal India Ltd - Key financial indicators; 12.0 Environmental issues; 1 Estimate of methane emission in coal mining

Coal Annual Review November 2009

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