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Cars and Utility Vehicles Annual Review June 2009

CRISIL Ltd.
June 30, 2009
136 Pages - SKU: CRSL2382992

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Countries covered: India

Higher cost of ownership impacts domestic car sales in 2008-09.

Spiralling interest rates, higher fuel prices and increase in car prices resulted in higher cost of ownership in 2008-09. This, and stringent credit disbursement norms, longer processing time, higher loan rejection rates and weak consumer sentiment led to flat growth (1.3 per cent) in domestic car sales in 2008-09. However, exports grew by 58 per cent y-o-y, with India emerging as a manufacturing hub for Hyundai Motor India Ltd (HMIL) and Maruti Suzuki India Ltd’s (MSIL) compact segment cars. HMIL’s exports grew by 75 per cent, with India catering to the global demand for its compact segment cars - i10 and i20. MSIL’s exports grew by 36 per cent with Suzuki Motor Corporation making India the manufacturing hub for its compact segment car ‘A star’. Recovery in 2009-10 to be aided by lower cost of ownership and deliveries of Tata Nano CRISIL Research expects the domestic passenger car industry to grow by 7-9 per cent and the domestic utility vehicles (UVs) segment to grow by 3-4 per cent in 2009-10 with cost of ownership reducing by 5-6 per cent, new model launches and increase in the addressable market with the launch of Tata Motors’ low cost car ‘Nano’.

Sections
Launch of low cost cars to aid growth in passenger cars
Executive summary
1.0 Demand review and outlook: Long-term demand drivers for passenger cars; Segment- wise assessment of demand drivers
2.0 India’s rising importance as a small car hub to drive momentum in exports: Global players’ export plans include cars and critical components
3.0 Operating margins expected to recover partly in 2009-10
4.0 Domestic used cars to grow at CAGR of 20 per cent up to 2013-14
Box
1.0 Demand review and outlook: 01 Research Methodology
Figures
1.0 Demand review and outlook: 01 Small car sales growth hit mainly by stringent financing (2008-09); 02 Monthly domestic car sales growth (y-o-y) shows revival signs since February 2009; 03 Share of petrol, diesel and LPG/CNG cars in total new car sales increases; 04 Monthly sales growth (y-o-y) of UVs; 05 Tata Nano to increase addressable market significantly
2.0 India’s rising importance as a small car hub to drive momentum in exports: 01 Trend in export volumes of the industry and top two players; 02 Small car segment to continue to be major contributor to exports; 03 Major manufacturing hubs of Hyundai (Sales in 2008); 04 Share of export in total sales of HMIL on increase; 05 India emerging as global manufacturing hub for Hyundai Motor Company; 06 Exports of MSIL on increasing trend; 07 Share of exports in total sales of MSIL rises; 08 Ratio of exports to production across countries (2007-08); 09 Exports to European countries on increase (2007-08); 10 India’s share of imports of different countries (2007-08)
Figures
3.0 Operating margins expected to recover partly in 2009-10: 01 Cost structure of MSIL; 02 Operating margins of major players; 03 Raw material cost per unit to decline in 2009-10; 04 Selling cost per unit to continue to increase in 2009-10; 05 Royalty expenses per unit sold increases for MSIL; 06 New model launches to intensify competition in small cars segment; 07 Product mix to change in favour of small cars; 08 Index of man-hours spent to produce one vehicle
4.0 Domestic used cars to grow at CAGR of 20 per cent up to 2013-14: 01 Compact cars segment driving growth of the used cars industry; 02 Average holding period of new cars on decline; 03 Small car to continue to drive demand in the used car industry; 04 Used cars sale to new cars sales ratio to increase significantly
Tables
1.0 Demand review and outlook: 01 Passenger car and UV demand growth; 02 Expected new model launches in the next 2-3 years
2.0 India’s rising importance as a small car hub to drive momentum in exports: 01 Company-wise long-term exports growth; 02 Major export destinations in different regions (2007-08)
3.0 Operating margins expected to recover partly in 2009-10: 01 Profitability across players; 02 Operating margins to improve in 2009-10; 03 Analysing competitive scenario in different segments; 04 New entrants in small car segment; 05 Number of players to increase across various price ranges; 06 Indigenisation level of different models
4.0 Domestic used cars to grow at CAGR of 20 per cent up to 2013-14: 01 Sales mix comparison of new cars industry and used cars industry; 02 Pricing of used cars; 03 Financing scenario to improve in 2009-10
Sections
1.0 Capacity/Supply for passenger cars and utility vehicles: Overview and outlook: Investment plans of OEMs in India
2.0 Automobile engineering service outsourcing -Revenues to triple by 2013-14
3.0 Regulations and policies: A) Pre-auto policy era; B) Post Auto Policy era; C) Regulations; D) Taxes and duties
4.0 Fuel technologies: Conventional fuels; Dieselisation in India; Alternative fuel options
5.0 International markets: United States of America (US); Western Europe; Japan; China
6.0 Domestic player profile: Ford India Ltd; General Motors India Ltd; Hindustan Motors Ltd; Hyundai Motors India Ltd; Mahindra & Mahindra Ltd; Maruti Suzuki India Ltd; Mercedes-Benz India Pvt Ltd (Subsidiary of Daimler AG); Skoda Auto India Pvt Ltd; Tata Motors Ltd; Toyota Kirloskar Motors Ltd
7.0 International player profile: Daimler AG; Ford Motor Company; General Motors Corporation; Honda Motor Co Ltd; Hyundai Motor Company; Renault SA; Toyota Motor Corporation
Box
3.0 Regulations and policies: 01 Box 1: Homologation
Charts
2.0 Automobile engineering service outsourcing -Revenues to triple by 2013-14: 01 Composition of engineering services; 02 India’s share in total automotive engineering service outsourcing (2008-09); 03 Auto ESO: Trends in outsourcing over last 15 years
Figures
4.0 Fuel technologies: 01 Diesel car penetration in Western Europe; 02 Diesel car penetration in India; 03 Petrol - Demand and supply; 04 Diesel - Demand and supply; 05 LPG - Production and consumption
5.0 International markets: 01 Cars: Region-wise global sales; 02 Cars: Region-wise y-o-y growth; 03 US - Passenger car sales; 04 US: Market share of key players; 05 Western Europe: Passenger car sales; 06 Performance of key countries; 07 Western Europe: Segment-wise break-up; 08 Western Europe - Share of diesel; 09 Japan: Passenger car sales; 10 Japan: Market share of key players; 11 Japan: Export volumes; 12 Japan: Sales break-up; 13 China: Passenger car sales (million units); 14 China: Performance of key players
7.0 International player profile: 01 Global sales - share of key players (2007); 02 Daimler AG (Mercedes-Benz cars); 03 Region-wise market share in 2007; 04 Daimler: Passenger car - Share in key markets; 05 Ford Motor Company; 06 Ford Motors region-wise marketshare; 07 Ford’s share in passenger car segment for key markets; 08 General Motor Company; 09 Region-wise market share in 2007; 10 General motors’ share in passenger car segment for key markets; 11 Honda Motor Company; 12 Region-wise volume break-up for Automotive division; 13 Region-wise revenue break-up for Automotive division; 14 Region-wise marketshare in 2007; 15 Honda Motors: Passenger cars - Share in key markets; 16 Hyundai Motor Company; 17 Region-wise market share in 2007; 18 Hyundai Motors: Passenger cars - Share in key markets; 19 Renault SA; 20 Region-wise market share 2007; 21 Renault SA: Passenger cars - Share in key markets; 22 Toyota Motor Company; 23 Region-wise volume break-up for Automotive division; 24 Region-wise revenue break-up for Automotive division; 25 Region-wise market share in 2007; 26 Toyota Motors: Passenger cars - Share in key markets
Tables
1.0 Capacity/Supply for passenger cars and utility vehicles: Overview and outlook: 01 Capacity utilisation of operational plants in India; 02 Player-wise estimated capacity by 2010-11; 03 Investment plans
2.0 Automobile engineering service outsourcing -Revenues to triple by 2013-14: 01 Key service providers in the Indian Auto ESO market
3.0 Regulations and policies: 01 Road map for new vehicles; 02 Prescribed emission limits; 03 Engine technologies for compliance of emission norms; 04 Cars and utility vehicles: Tariffs
4.0 Fuel technologies: 01 World-wide diselisation; 02 Comparing costs across fuel options
6.0 Domestic player profile: 01 Fiat India Pvt Ltd; 02 Ford India Ltd (Subsidiary of Ford Motor Company); 03 General Motors India Pvt Ltd; 04 Hindustan Motors Ltd; 05 Honda Siel Cars India Ltd; 06 Hyundai Motors India Ltd; 07 Mahindra & Mahindra Ltd; 08 Maruti Suzuki Ltd; 09 DaimlerChrysler India Pvt Ltd; 10 Skoda Auto India Private Ltd; 11 Tata Motors Ltd; 12 Toyota Kirloskar Ltd
7.0 International player profile: 01 International players - Financial summary; 02 Daimler AG - Financial profile; 03 Daimler AG - Rating information; 04 Ford Motor Company - Financial profile; 05 Ford Motor Company - Rating information; 06 General Motor Company - Financial profile; 07 General Motor Company - Rating information; 08 Honda Motor Company - Financial profile; 09 Honda Motor Company - Rating information; 10 Hyundai Motor Company - Financial profile; 11 Hyundai Motor Company - Rating information; 12 Renault SA - Financial profile; 13 Toyota Motor Company - Financial profile; 14 Toyota Motor Company - Rating information
Section: 01 Industry statistics
Tables: 01 Passenger cars — Segment-wise domestic sales; 02 Passenger cars — Segment-wise domestic market share; 03 Passenger cars — Model-wise domestic sales; 04 Passenger cars — Model-wise domestic sales-mix of players; 05 Utility vehicles — Model-wise domestic sales; 06 Utility vehicles — Model-wise domestic sales-mix of players; 07 Cars — Player-wise domestic sales; 08 Cars — Player-wise domestic market share; 09 Utility vehicles — Player-wise domestic sales; 10 Utility vehicles — Player-wise domestic market share; 11 Cars and utility vehicles — Exports; 12 Cars and utility vehicles — Player-wise share in total exports; 13 Cars — Player-wise production; 14 Utility vehicles — Player-wise production; 15 Cars and utility vehicles — Segmental product mix

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