Airline services Annual review September 2009
CRISIL Ltd.
September 30, 2009 72 Pages - SKU: CRSL2467754
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International operations to grow at a faster rate as compared to domestic operations
Demand, as defined by passenger kilometres (pax-km) of Indian carriers on international operations, is expected to grow at a CAGR of 13.8 per cent from 2009-10 to 2013-14 while domestic demand is expected to grow at a CAGR of 12.5 per cent in the same period.
Supply, as defined by available seats kilometres (ASKM) of Indian carriers on international operations, is expected to grow at a CAGR of 11 per cent from 2009-10 to 2013-14; domestic supply is expected to grow at a CAGR of 9.5 per cent during the same period. Supply is likely to grow at a faster rate on international operations driven by better profitability and less competitive international routes.
Passenger load factor (PLF) on international operations is expected to improve from 68 per cent in 2008-09 to 76 per cent in 2013-14 while domestic PLFs are likely to improve from 64.4 per cent in 2008-09 to 78 per cent in 2013-14.
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- Sections
- International operations to grow at a faster rate as compared to domestic operations
- Executive summary
- 1.0 Demand - supply outlook: 2009-10 to 2013-14
- Forecast of international pax-km and ASKM: 2008-09 until 2013-14
- Forecast of domestic pax-km and ASKM: 2008-09 until 2013-14
- 2.0 Suitability of operating models at varying ATF prices
- 3.0 Significant equity infusion required; room for further consolidation
- 4.0 International operations: Rapid expansion in past 5 years
- Increasing focus of carriers on international operations
- 5.0 Impact of ATF prices on break-even ticket prices on international routes
- Boxes
- 1.0 Demand - supply outlook: 2009-10 to 2013-14
- 01: Pax-km and ASKM forecast methodology
- 02: Pax-km, ASKM and domestic passenger traffic forecast methodology
- Figures
- 1.0 Demand - supply outlook: 2009-10 to 2013-14
- 01 Projected aggregate international pax-km and ASKM
- 02 Projected Indian carriers’ pax-km and ASKM on international routes
- 03 Projected aggregate international PLF
- 04 Projected Indian carriers PLF on international routes
- 05 Projected domestic pax-km and ASKM
- 06 Projected domestic PLF
- 07 Projected domestic passenger traffic
- 2.0 Suitability of operating models at varying ATF prices
- 01 PLF of FSC and LFC at different ATF (Rs/litre)
- 02 ATF cost as percentage of total cost at varying crude oil prices
- 03 EBITDA and EBITDAR margins of FSCs and LFCs at varying crude oil prices
- 04 EBITDA and EBITDAR margins of FSCs and LFCs
- 3.0 Significant equity infusion required; room for further consolidation
- 01 EBITDA margins of international and domestic carriers
- 02 Debt to equity ratio of carriers
- 4.0 International operations: Rapid expansion in past 5 years
- 01 International operations by Indian carriers
- 02 World and Indian GDP growth rate
- 03 FDI inflows in India
- 04 International tourist traffic and growth rate
- 05 Average ticket prices of Indian carriers (Rs)
- 06 Rapid expansion by private carriers on international routes
- 07 Market share of state-owned and private carriers
- 08 EBITDAR margins - Domestic and international segment of Jet Airways
- 09 PLF of Indian carriers on international and domestic routes
- 10 Growing market share of Indian carriers on international routes
- 11 International traffic distribution (%), 2007-08
- Tables
- 2.0 Suitability of operating models at varying ATF prices
- 01 Assumption for the model
- 3.0 Significant equity infusion required; room for further consolidation
- 01 Debt to equity ratio of major FSCs in India
- 4.0 International operations: Rapid expansion in past 5 years
- 01 ATF prices/ litre (Rs)
- 5.0 Impact of ATF prices on break-even ticket prices on international routes
- 01 Translation of crude oil to ATF prices
- 02 Break-even average ticket prices at PLF of 65 per cent
- 03 Break-even average ticket prices at PLF of 77 per cent
- Sections
- 1.0 Domestic passenger traffic: Decline in 2008-09 after strong growth
- 2.0 International operations: Growth in traffic in spite of slowdown
- 3.0 Industry financials and profitability trends
- 4.0 Increasing competition in domestic airlines market
- 5.0 Aircraft acquisition and leasing process
- 6.0 Factors affecting profitability in aviation industry
- 7.0 Player profile
- Jet Airways
- JetLite
- National Aviation Company of India Ltd (NACIL)
- Kingfisher Red
- Paramount Airways
- Spice Jet
- IndiGo
- Go Air
- 8.0 Glossary of Airlines Industry
- Chart
- 5.0 Aircraft acquisition and leasing process
- 01 Aircraft acquisition process
- Figures
- 1.0 Domestic passenger traffic: Decline in 2008-09 after strong growth
- 01 Passengers carried by scheduled Indian carriers - Domestic operation
- 02 Domestic tourist traffic and growth rate
- 03 Manufacturing and service sector growth rate
- 04 Average PLF - Domestic operation
- 05 Average ATF prices
- 2.0 International operations: Growth in traffic in spite of slowdown
- 01 Growing international traffic in spite of economic slowdown
- 02 Passengers carried by scheduled Indian carriers - International operations
- 3.0 Industry financials and profitability trends
- 01 Operating revenue, expenditure and profitability of airlines (Domestic+International)
- 02 RPKM, ASKM and PLF of airlines in India (Domestic+International)
- 4.0 Increasing competition in domestic airlines market
- 01 Market share of airlines
- 6.0 Factors affecting profitability in aviation industry
- 01 Operating and net margins of US airlines
- Tables
- 1.0 Domestic passenger traffic: Decline in 2008-09 after strong growth
- 01 Domestic passengers handled at non-metro airports
- 02 Average ticket prices (Rs)
- 2.0 International operations: Growth in traffic in spite of slowdown
- 01 International passenger traffic
- 3.0 Industry financials and profitability trends
- 01 Operating margins of airline companies in India
- 02 Average domestic ticket prices of airline companies (Rs)
- 03 Personnel statistics (2007-08)
- 04 Player profile of airlines in India
- 7.0 Player profile
- 01 Jet Airways - Profile
- 02 Jet Airways - Operational snapshot (2007-08)
- 03 Jet Airways - Existing fleet
- 04 JetLite - Profile
- 05 JetLite - Operational snapshot (2007-08)
- 06 JetLite - Existing fleet
- 07 Air India - Profile
- 08 Air India - Operational Snapshot (2007-08)
- 09 Air India - Existing fleet
- 10 Indian Airlines - Profile
- 11 Indian Airlines - Operational snapshot (2007-08)
- 12 Indian Airlines - Existing fleet Kingfisher
- 13 Kingfisher - Profile
- 14 Kingfisher - Operational snapshot (2007-08)
- 15 Kingfisher - Existing fleet
- 16 Kingfisher Red - Profile
- 17 Kingfisher Red - Operational snapshot (2007-08)
- 18 Kingfisher Red - Existing fleet
- 19 Paramount Airways - Profile
- 20 Paramount Airways - Operational snapshot (2007-08)
- 21 Paramount Airways - Existing fleet
- 22 Spice Jet - Profile
- 23 Spice Jet - Operational snapshot (2007-08)
- 24 Spice Jet - Existing fleet
- 25 IndiGo - Profile
- 26 IndiGo - Operational snapshot (2007-08)
- 27 IndiGo - Existing fleet
- 28 Go Air - Profile
- 29 Go Air - Operational snapshot (2007-08)
- 30 Go Air - Existing fleet
- Section
- 1.0 Industry statistics
- Tables
- 1.0 Industry statistics
- 01 Total passengers carried (nos) - Domestic operation
- 02 Total passengers carried (nos) - International operation
- 03 Available seat kms (million - km) - Domestic operation
- 04 Available seat kms (million - km) - International operation
- 05 Pax-kms performed (million - km) - Domestic operation
- 05 Pax-kms performed (million - km) - Domestic operation
- 06 Pax-kms performed (million - km) - International operation
- 07 Operating revenue (Rs. million)
- 08 Operating expenses (Rs million)
- 09 Total personnel (nos)
- 10 Operating revenues & expenses per km (Rs)
- 11 Fleet size
- 12 Schedule aircraft departure - Domestic operation
- 13 Schedule aircraft departure - International operation
- 14 Schedule aircraft hours flown - Domestic operation
- 15 Schedule aircraft hours flown - International operation
- 16 Average block hours of scheduled Indian carriers
- 17 Passenger load factor (%) - Domestic operation
- 18 Passenger load factor (%) - International operation
- 19 Kms ('000) flown - Domestic operation
- 20 Kms ('000) flown - International operation
- Industry statistics
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