Zambia Business Forecast Report Q1 2015

BMI Research
December 12, 2014
44 Pages - SKU: BMI5432385
Countries covered: Zambia

Zambia Business Forecast Report Q1 2015

Core Views:

Zambian ruling party the Patriotic Front (PF) is set for a fractioussuccession process in the lead-up to an election that will be heldwithin 90 days of President Michael Sata's death on October 28.

Domestic demand will be the engine of the Zambian economy in2015 as low copper prices and policy uncertainty weigh on the externalsector. The presidential bi-election in January 2015 will be akey determinant of policy until the next full election in 2016 and thispresents risks – predominantly to the downside – for our 2015 realGDP growth forecast of 7.0%.

The kwacha will trade in a largely sideways fashion at aroundZMW6.400/USD over both short and long term as declining oil pricesoffset the impact that lower copper prices will have on the externalaccounts. Cautious monetary policy will also provide support for thecurrency. The risks are weighted to the downside.



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