West and Central Africa Food and Drink Report Q2 2012

BMI View: With high single digit food consumption growth forecasts and double digit mass grocery retail forecasts in place, the investment opportunities on offer in the West and Central Africa region are clearly enormous.

Of course Nigeria and Ghana have garnered most investor interest to date.

However, we also see strong growth opportunities in Cameroon and Cote’Ivoire, both of which are growing from a lower base.

Our outlook for Gabon is slightly less positive and this is a product of the country’s declining oil production and a lack of tangible progress so far in terms of economic diversification.

That said though, if by West and Central African standards, growth in Gabon is forecast to be modest, it does still stand out as a growth outperformer when looked at in comparison to the wider food and drink emerging market universe.

Key Forecasts: Cameroon – Per capita food consumption to grow by an average of 7.2% annually out to 2016 Cameroon – Mass grocery retail sales to increase by an annual average of 14.8% over the five-year forecast period Cote D’Ivoire – Strong per capita food consumption growth forecast of 10.5% annually out to 2016 Cote D’Ivoire – Mass grocery retail sales growth is forecast to average 14.0% annually over the five-year period Gabon – A weaker economic outlook for Gabon that elsewhere in the region, means we expect per capita food consumption growth to average a lower 4% annually out to 2016 Gabon – Mass grocery retail sales growth will average 13.1% annually to 2016 Key Trends: Population Growth: In line with the wider Sub-Saharan African region, a major part of West and Central Africa’s appeal to investors is its favourable population dynamics.

Obviously Nigeria, with its massive population, leads the pack in this regard.

However, Cameroon and Cote D’Ivoire also have a relatively large consumer base.

Most attractive though is the age breakdown of the population in the region.

A large and growing pool of young consumers provide an attractive audience for consumer goods firms and also provide some assurances of strong growth potential remaining well beyond our current forecast period.

Gabon is the notable outlier, with a far smaller consumer base, although population growth here is forecast to strong.

Formalisation of Retailing: Right throughout the region, our forecasts for Mass Grocery Retail sales growth outstrip our forecasts for Food Consumption growth, although it should be noted that both are broadly impressive.

The outperformance of retail will be a result of the ongoing formalisation of the sector and the fact that it is, in most cases, coming from an exceptionally low base.

The addition of just a few modern retail outlets, which cause shoppers to trade up and away from traditional independent stores and marketplaces, will have a massive impact on growth in the sector.

Of course this is a two-way relationship and over time, this process of formalisation will also prove a major driver of food consumption growth.

It will make a wider range of higher-value grocery items available to a wider range of consumers.