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Ukraine Infrastructure Report Q3 2015

64 Pages BMI Research June 17, 2015 SKU: BMI5590743

BMI View: With the prospect of a major recession looming, the local currency depreciating sharply and thepotential for a re-escalation of conflict in the east of Ukraine lingering there is little to instil confidenceamongst investors in the country's declining infrastructure sector. With major projects put on hold due to alack of private investment and huge pressure on public spending, we therefore expect to see the fourthconsecutive year of contraction in construction industry value in 2015, with transport in particularunderperforming. In light of the weak domestic economy and lack of investor interest we do not expect tosee any return to growth prior to 2017 with the entire infrastructure sector remaining subdued throughoutthe forecast period.

Key Trends And Developments

Ukraine's economic outlook remains extremely weak, with BMI's Ukraine Country Risk analystsforecasting real GDP to contract by 5.3% in 2015 alongside high inflation and extensive currencydepreciation.

With official statistics showing an even sharper than expected contraction in construction in 2014 wehave further downgraded our 2015 forecasts and now expect residential and non-residential constructionvalue to contract by 14.4% in real terms in 2015 on a year-on-year (y-o-y) basis and infrastructureindustry value by 9.1%.

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Ukraine Infrastructure Report Q3 2015

BMI Research
June 17, 2015

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