Uganda Defence and Security Report Q1 2013

BMI's Uganda Defence & Security Report for Q1 2013 examines the country's strategic position in theAfrican region and the wider world. It provides an overview of the contemporary geopolitical challengesfacing the country, and the challenges it may face in the future.

The report analyses the trends occurring in the country's current and future defence procurement, and theorder of battle across its armed forces. The report's general conclusion is that the controversy surroundingUganda's alleged backing of rebel forces in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) threatens thecountry's international standing, as well as regional stability. Uganda, a key contributor to regionalpeacekeeping efforts, has threatened to quit these missions in response to a UN report accusing it ofcomplicity in the insurgency engulfing the eastern DRC. Meanwhile, the M23 rebel group that Kampalais accused of supporting has made substantial gains.

Ultimately, Uganda's long-serving President Yoweri Museveni will be reluctant to withdraw from theprominent regional role into which he has steered the country. Nonetheless, the extent of the politicalfallout regarding the involvement of Uganda and others in the DRC has yet to be revealed. Impressiveprogress by the AMISOM mission in Somalia, for example, could be reversed if Uganda pulls out its6,300 troops, as threatened.

Museveni has also rejected calls by parliamentarians for the government to divert funds from defence andother areas into the country's ailing healthcare system. Social unrest is a growing problem in Uganda, andone contributing factor is the government's failure to deliver on promises to invest in healthcare.

Parliamentarians objected to the fact that the government had spent heavily on Sukhoi fighter jets andregional peacekeeping operations, while breaking its pledges on healthcare provision. Despite theseconcerns, Museveni in September effectively overruled parliament by issuing an executive order thatring-fenced the defence budget, which is now likely to increase in 2013. Increases will be necessary if, assignalled, the president plans to acquire more advanced military systems, including fighter aircraft.

Over the last quarter BMI has revised the following forecasts/views:

The M23 campaign in the eastern DRC is discussed in detail, as are allegations that Rwanda andUganda have backed the rebel forces. The implications of Uganda's reaction to the allegations -namely that it will quit regional peacekeeping missions - are also analysed.

The progress of the AMISOM mission to support the interim Somali government against al-Shabaab militants is updated. The mission - which is under Ugandan command - has shownimportant signs of success as a newly elected Somali president turns his attention to drafting anew national constitution. However, these gains could be reversed if, as threatened, Ugandawithdraws from AMISOM.

Problems with African Union efforts to eliminate Joseph Kony and the Lord's Resistance Army(LRA) have recently emerged. A plan to assemble a 5,000 troop task force comprising fourcountries including Uganda met with praise in mid-2012. However, it has now emerged that thetask force has not yet begun its work, and that the contributors have not even agreed on astrategy. Meanwhile, Kony remains at large somewhere in Central Africa.

President Museveni was due in Moscow for talks with President Putin in December. Despitegrowing resentment in Uganda over heavy spending on military equipment and regionalmissions, Museveni was expected to discuss further big-ticket procurements, including attackhelicopters and additional Sukhoi Su-30 fighter jets to add to the six already acquired fromRussia for around US$720mn - a capability that critics of Museveni say that Uganda does notneed and cannot afford.