Thailand Petrochemicals Report Q3 2012

The Thailand Petrochemicals Report examines the long-term potential of the highly competitive local industry as well as the short-term effects of post-flooding reconstruction and the slowdown in key export markets.

The report examines recent developments in capacity expansion, focusing on the new integrated worldscale complexes at Map Ta Phut, in the context of a deteriorating economic environment. It also analyses the growth and risk management strategies being employed by the leading players in the Brazilian food and drink sector, as they seek to maximise the tremendous growth opportunities offered by the local market.

Post-flooding reconstruction is set to be the focus of the economy over the short term, but the positive effects on the local petrochemicals market are likely to wear off quickly. At the same time, external demand for Thai petrochemicals and end products will be lacklustre. We are expecting headline growth to come in at just 4.0% in 2012, which is well below the Bloomberg consensus of 5.1%, and domestic demand will not be sufficient to cover increased output should exports perform below par.

To 2016, we have flat forecasts for capacity expansion across all product areas. Thailand is expected to remain a net exporter of five major polymers – PE, PVC, PP, PS and PET – despite estimates that demand growth for the products is likely to drop. The combined domestic consumption of the five polymers is forecast to rise substantially over our forecast period; however, Thailand’s major polymer exports are likely to reach up to third of capacity by the end of 2016.

Over the last quarter BMI has revised the following forecasts/views:

Thailand's automobile industry could perform exceptionally well throughout the remaining of the year due to an influx of foreign direct investment (FDI) into the sector and resilient demand for Thai vehicle exports, which should spur growth in rubber and engineering plastics.

In BMI’s Asia Pacific petrochemicals risk/reward ratings matrix, Thailand scores 69.8 points, a rise of 0.1 point since the previous quarter owing to an improvement in its country risk score. It is in sixth place, 3.2 points behind Taiwan and 6.1 points ahead of Malaysia.

Thai oil production is set to decline over the course of our forecast period, but we see an increase in refining capacity in 2016 as a result of a US$2bn investment programme by IRPC. This would further strengthen naphtha supplies to PTT’s crackers.