Thailand Food and Drink Report Q3 2012

Cooling external demand and deteriorating global economic conditions would inevitably take their toll on consumer confidence in the near future. Moreover, as uncertainties over the outlook for employment in export-related sectors continue to weigh on sentiment and prompt households to cut back on spending, we believe private consumption growth should remain relatively muted over the coming quarters. In the longer term, the positives of a massive youth population, strong economic growth and rising incomes will remain major draws for foreign consumer goods investors. This potential will continue to attract the sights of consumer players such as Meiji Holdings, Fraser and Neave and Mai Tan, which should instil greater dynamism to the sector going forward.

Headline Industry Data (local currency)

2012 food consumption growth = +4.1%; compound annual growth rate (CAGR) forecast to 2016 = +5.0%

2012 soft drinks value sales growth = +7.0%; CAGR forecast to 2016 = +7.1%

2012 alcoholic drinks value sales growth = +4.9%; CAGR forecast to 2016 = +4.3%

2012 mass grocery retail sales growth = +5.6%; CAGR forecast to 2016 = +5.1% Key Industry Trends Pursuing Growth Beyond Thailand: Thai food company Charoen Pokphand Foods (CP Foods) is reportedly preparing a GBP2.5bn (US$4bn) bid for fish finger manufacturer Birds Eye, a part of frozen food group Iglo. The first round bids have also been submitted by private equity investment firms Blackstone and BC Partners, although reports suggest that CP Foods is likely to acquire Birds Eye. Moreover, CP Foods has recently acquired a 74.18% stake in Vietnam-based feed business and agribusiness services firm CP Pokphand, further bearing out its overseas expansionary ambitions.

Japanese ingredients producer Ajinomoto recently announced that it has set up a sales company in Bangladesh in August to sell seasonings and processed foods to local consumers. This investment forms part of Ajinomoto’s broader strategy of growing its footprint across international markets with a particular focus on emerging markets (EMs) in the Middle East, Africa and South Asia.

Tesco’s Impressive Debut Reflects Investor Confidence In Thai Retail – In Thailand’s biggest initial public offering (IPO) since Rayong Refinery ’s US$710mn listing in 2006, UK mass grocery retail (MGR) giant Tesco ’s property fund surged by more than 10% on its trading debut on March 19 2012, allowing it to raise capital funds of around THB18.4bn (US$600mn). Tesco’s strong debut performance comes against the backdrop of a softened demand environment, and our broadly cautious outlook on Thai equities, and these headwinds have certainly not quelled investors’ desire to jump on the Thai retail bandwagon. The dynamics of rising incomes, higher urbanisation and the rapid emergence of sector competition underpin our bright retail outlook for Thailand. Clearly, Tesco’s debut showing is a strong signal of investor confidence in its ability to ride on Thailand’s retail growth story and consequently enjoy robust growth prospects.