BMI View: Our latest Angola Power Report, which from this quarter excludes a breakdown of energygenerated from non-hydro renewable sources, reveals that Angola’s government plans to rely uponhydroelectric power to meet the vast majority of its energy requirements. With several new projects in thepipeline over the course of our forecast period, many of which are being funded or constructed byinternational firms, BMI questions whether Angola’s distribution and transmission infrastructure willkeep pace with development and if the government will meet its goal to reach ‘power stability’ by 2016.
In August 2012, Angolans will vote in the country’s third parliamentary elections since the end of the civilwar. While we expect that President Dos Santos will continue in power – where he has remained for thepast 30 years – we do believe that issues such as high unemployment, a frustrated young population andAngola’s impoverished war veterans will dominate the electoral scene, with potential for civil unrest.
In our revised quarterly power report, which now excludes a breakdown of energy generated by nonhydrorenewable projects, BMI forecasts that Angola's overall power generation will increase by anannual average of 8.9% between 2011 and 2016 to reach 5.82 terawatt hours (TWh). A 9.2% annualaverage increase in hydropower will spur this growth and hydroelectric power will dominate the energymix during the forecast period. We envisage Angola's net power consumption increasing from 3.41TWhin 2011 to 5.29TWh by 2016. A steady increase in GDP will support growth; following real GDP growthof 5.2% in 2011, BMI forecasts average annual growth of 7.8% between 2011 and 2021.
We expect improvements to Angola's national electricity grid to result in a gradual decline in thepercentage of transmission and distribution (T&D) losses, falling from around 10.0% in 2011. Thepresence of oil and gas majors in the country will incentivise the government to improve its electricityinfrastructure to meet the industry’s requirements, but access to electricity remains limited withconsiderable room for improvement.
Key developments in Angola’s power sector this quarter include:
Expansion work on the Kambambe Dam is expected to be completed by the end of July 2012,according to the Ministry of Energy and Water, increasing capacity to 700MW.
In May 2012, the Mabubas hydroelectric power plant was reopened, following a two-yearrehabilitation project funded by China’s Kanazuri Electric. Costing US$21.7mn, the plant has26.8MW electricity generating capacity.
In July 2012, the National Electricity Company (ENE) announced that two 10MW thermalpower plants are under construction in Namibe, along with 34km of transmission lines and 18transformers. They are scheduled to begin operations in late 2012.Botswana