BMI View: Our forecasts for the South African freight transport sector are positive across all modes in2015 - air, road, rail, and through the country's ports. The economy will see a partial recovery from 2014'sanaemic growth of 1.4%, and we forecast a real expansion of 2.5% this year. That said, growth in freightvolumes will not be particularly robust, and there are significant downside risks to our projections, notleast from the mining sector and a potential hard landing in China. South Africa's freight transport sector isdriven primarily by two forces: private consumption and the mining sector. Manufacturing industries play alimited role in the intermodal transport of containers, but this is primarily driven by imports. Automotivesproduction necessitates the transport of spare and intermediate parts.
Headline Industry Data
Rail freight growth will be 1.5% in 2015, and will average 3.0% to 2019.
Richards Bay Port's tonnage throughput in 2015 is forecast to expand by 2.0%, returning to positiveterritory after a decline in volumes in 2014. Over the medium term we project a 2.2% average annualincrease.
2015 total trade growth is forecast at 4.3%, and to average 4.4% over the medium term.
Road freight volumes are set to expand by 5.7% in 2015, and to average 6.1% over our forecast period.