We forecast Slovak real GDP to expand by 2.8% and 3.2% in 2015 and 2016 respectively, with domesticdemand being the engine of growth. Slovakia's consumer price index (CPI) was in contraction for much of2014 and falling oil prices mean that inflation will stay lower for longer into 2015. In contrast to somedeveloped eurozone states, where falling prices and economic stagnation imply that deflation expectationscould become entrenched and act as a major drag on growth potential, we see few risks of this patternemerging in Slovakia. Instead, disinflation has supported consumption by contributing to rapidly rising realwages since mid-2013, a trend that has further to run in 2015. Rising real wage growth has coincided withaccelerating consumer credit growth, rising consumer confidence and gradually improving labour marketdynamics, which all bodes well for discretionary spending in the food and drink sector.
Headline Industry Data (local currency)
2015 per capita food consumption growth = +3.39% year-on-year (y-o-y); forecast compound annualgrowth rate (CAGR) to 2019 = +4.04%.