Singapore Defence and Security Report Q1 2013

The Singapore Defence and Security Report for Q1 2013 examines the country's strategic position in theAsia-Pacific region and the wider world. It provides an overview of the contemporary geopoliticalchallenges facing the country, and the challenges it may face in the future.

The report examines the trends occurring in the country's current and future defence procurement, and theorder of battle across its armed forces. The intention is to provide a clear and concise discussion of theseissues. The report's general conclusion is that Singapore has responded decisively to changes in itsgeopolitical environment brought about by the rise of China by further strengthening its alliance with theUnited States and encouraging Washington to play a greater role in South East Asia.

The embodiment of this strategic decision will be the stationing of up to four US Navy littoral combatships in Singapore, as finally confirmed by the Singaporean government in June 2012. The Obamaadministration was due to embark on a major diplomatic push in the Asia-Pacific in November 2012, andSingapore was at the centre of those plans. Singapore is also reported to be increasing its activity inrelation to the F-35 stealth fighter aircraft programme, with many analysts expecting a formalSingaporean order to follow in 2013.

Within South East Asia itself, Singapore's military pre-eminence will remain unchallenged for theforeseeable future, with spending on defence set to remain high and a range of advanced new capabilitieseither already procured or in the process of being procured. Furthermore, Singapore is actively engaged indefence diplomacy with many important regional partners, such as Australia, India, Indonesia andVietnam. So although there is currently regional volatility centring on territorial disputes between Chinaand a number of other parties, Singapore is set to remain on the sidelines of these disagreements.

Disharmony within Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) was an ongoing concern forSingapore and its South East Asian neighbours, though the US-ASEAN Leaders' Meeting and East AsiaSummit, held in Cambodia in November; these were viewed as opportunities to mend some of the brokenfences in South East Asia's regional framework.

In BMI's view, an economic downturn would pose the most significant threat to Singapore's defencestrategy. Singapore devotes an exceptionally high proportion of its national budget to defence, and anyeconomic volatility could affect the country's ability to spend its way out of trouble when it comes tomatters of security.

Over the last quarter BMI has revised the following forecasts/views:

Defence Minister Ng Eng Hen assured parliament in Q412 that Singapore's changingdemographics would not pose a threat to the SAF's future capabilities. He accepted that thenumber of annual recruits would fall from their current peak of 21,000 per year to 15,000, but hesaid the SAF would be able to maintain its overall strength out to 2040. Higher calibre recruitsand the hi-tech nature of the SAF meant that the quality of troops was becoming more importantthan the quantity of troops, he said.

Singaporean land systems manufacturer ST Kinetics moved a step closer to securing the mostimportant export order in its history when the company's Terrex armoured personnel carrier wasconfirmed as one of four short-listed vehicles for the US Marine Corps' marine personnel carrier(MPC) programme. Singapore's growing stature as a US ally means that ST Kinetics has achance of winning what is expected to be a 570-vehicle requirement.

Singapore has continued to place itself at the heart of regional defence diplomacy. In Q3 and Q4there were numerous visits and military exercises with Australia and the United States,underlining where Singapore's sees itself strategically as the Asia-Pacific changes.