BMI View: Serbia's EU candidacy will be the key driver of the IT industry over the next five years, as itbrings its business environment and infrastructure in line with the rest of the Eurozone region. Thelandslide election of the pro-EU Progressive Party in March 2014 should help this transition and boostmarket growth, in particular, with the privatisation of Telekom Srbija, lowering tariff barriers for hardwareand the reduction of software piracy. Serbia's strategic location in Europe and high level of technicaleducation will also benefit the market, as it could become a regional hub for business process outsourcing.
However, Serbia's economy has come under pressure as a result of devastating floods, causing a wideningbudget shortfall. Combined with the depreciating dinar, this could pose a major risk in the short-term asgovernment spend on IT will be curbed.
BMI forecasts average growth of 5.5% in the IT market between 2014 and 2018. Hardware sales growthwill be 4.7% on average over the period, reaching RSD52.8bn by 2018 and remain the largest source ofspending. IT services will see strong growth, reaching 22% of overall spending by 2018, an average growthrate of 7.0%. Software will grow fastest by a small margin, increasing by 7.3% over the period, but onlyaccounting for 12.7% of overall spending.