Since our last quarterly update on the outlook for Qatar's auto sector, football's world governing body FIFAreleased a report produced by its ethics committee (of which only a 42-page summary was published onNovember 13 2014) that found no evidence that would justify stripping the emirate of holding thetournament. Consequently, Qatar's hosting of the FIFA 2022 World Cup now looks certain to go ahead. Thecommittee's report states that any improper behaviour by Qatar in the bidding process was 'only of verylimited scope' and fully rules out a revote. This brings an official end to months of corruption allegationsagainst Qatar and related uncertainty surrounding the country's vast infrastructure plans.
BMI's baseline scenario already assumed that the FIFA 2022 World Cup would go ahead in Qatar asplanned and we therefore have no cause to change our economic or construction growth forecasts. We seethe economy growing by an average of 5.7% in real annual terms over the next 10 years, largely revolvingaround the performance of the non-hydrocarbons sector. Strong population growth and progress on thegovernment's large-scale infrastructure programme will drive both construction activity and the sustainedexpansion of the services sector. The migrant population will continue to expand at a rapid pace inpreparation for the World Cup; out of a total population of 2.21mn as of October 2014, only an estimated225,000 are native Qataris.