Pakistan Defence and Security Report Q1 2013

BMI's Pakistan Defence & Security Report for Q1 2013 examines the country's strategic position in theAsian region and the wider world. It provides an overview of the contemporary geopolitical challengesfacing the country, and the challenges it may face in the future.

The report also examines the trends occurring in the country's current and future defence procurement,and the order of battle across its armed forces. The report's general conclusion is that Pakistan remainstrapped in a cycle of political instability, economic malaise and Islamist militancy, with little hope of thesituation improving in the short to medium term.

Domestically, the country continues to battle serious insurgencies in the Federally Administered TribalAreas (FATA), and also in Balochistan. While US drone strikes and Pakistan Army operations havecontinued in the FATA, a much-needed operation in North Waziristan - the base of the Haqqani Networkand other militant groups - has been postponed indefinitely. This decision will also be of great irritationto the US government, at a time when it is attempting to mend its severely strained relationship withPakistan.

The shooting of schoolgirl Malala Yousafzai by the Taliban in Swat has piled pressure on the governmentto take action against militants, though public outrage has yet to translate into any obvious action onIslamabad's part.

In Q3-4 2012, the government and the military continued to be surprised by the scale and ambition ofinsurgent activities. These included a large-scale offensive in the FATA launched from insideAfghanistan, and also a daring suicide raid on Kamra airbase, home to Pakistan's arsenal of nuclearwarheads.

Balochistan is also becoming an acute problem, with Islamabad reluctant to face up to the problem ofextra-judicial killings in the province by the security services and their proxy agencies.Over the last quarter BMI has revised the following forecasts/views:

Pakistan's attempts to counter militants in FATA are discussed in detail. While manycommentators felt at the time that the wave of public anger over the shooting of MalalaYousafzai would translate into real action on the part of the government, BMI notes that thePakistan Army is pressing forwards with plans to pull troops out of Swat, the scene of the attack.

The deteriorating situation in Balochistan is reviewed in detail. Former chief minister SardarAkhtar Mengal returned to Pakistan after three years in exile in October and presented a sixpointplan for restoring security and political stability to the province. However, the governmentrejected his plan, mainly because it refuses to acknowledge the role of the state in the hundredsof disappearances and extrajudicial killings that have occurred there. If Islamabad remains indenial on this point, Mengal warned, Balochistan would seek to leave the Pakistani state.

A hoped-for breakthrough in India-Pakistan relations will not now materialise, with Indian PrimeMinister Manmohan Singh deciding not to visit Pakistan in November at the invitation ofPresident Zardari. India rejected the offer on the grounds that Pakistan has not done enough torein in militant groups that target India.

Pakistan has signed defence industry co-operation agreements with a number of countries,including Malaysia and Turkey, as it seeks to hedge against its defence reliance on China and theUS.