Nigeria Power Report Q2 2014

Business Monitor International
April 2, 2014
85 Pages - SKU: BMI5225011
Countries covered: Nigeria

Nigeria Power Report Q2 2014

BMI View: We have largely maintained our optimistic forecasts for Nigeria's power sector this quarter andforecast annual average growth in electricity generation of 9% through to 2023. With the unbundling ofPHCN all but completed, attention is now turning to the auctioning of 10 gas-fired power plants under theNIPP strategy - supporting our upbeat outlook. That said, there are certainly considerable downside risksto our forecasts, as highlighted by concerns about the condition of T&D infrastructure and the fact thelaunch of a transitional electricity market (TEM) has been delayed due to disputes over tariffs andgas supply shortages. We believe a failure to secure adequate gas feedstock remains the biggest risk toNigeria's efforts to ramp up power generation capacity, which is needed to meet pent-up demand.

In a move that indicates Nigeria's power sector could be on the verge of realising some of its considerablepotential, state-owned Power Holding Company of Nigeria (PHCN) ceased to exist in late 2013 after thefederal government handed ownership of successor companies to the private sector. Although it had beeneight years since the laws were passed to facilitate the process, the news was hugely significant for Nigeriaas it attempts to draw vast sums of private investment into the power sector. Investment is needed toestablish the generation capacity required to meet surging demand for electricity and support rapideconomic growth. Nigeria possesses a host of attractive power sector specific and macroeconomicfundamentals that underpin our forecast, with huge untapped demand for electricity among the country's180mn people, and BMI's Country Risk team forecasting average annual real GDP growth of close to 7%between 2013 and 2023.



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