Nigeria Infrastructure Report Q2 2012

BMI View: Investment continues to flow into the Nigerian construction sector as low inflation bolstersgrowth levels. Revised figures suggest that year-on –year (y-o-y) growth will be 9.5% for 2012, with thistrend continuing to average 9.2% y-o-y growth between 2012 and the end of our forecast period in 2021.The construction industry value is forecast to come in at US$3.3bn for 2012, trebling to US$9.4bn by2021.

Key developments include:

Nigerian infrastructure development company Bi-Courtney Highway Services (BCHS) haSannounced that it is to begin its redevelopment of the Lagos-Ibadan Expressway at the Ibadanend. The US$559mn project involves the reconstruction of both existing carriageways, as well asthe addition of two more carriageways in each direction between the Lagos-Sagamu interchange.BCHS has been awarded a 25-year concession contract to manage the expressway, which linksLagos with Nigeria's western states.

The government of the Nigerian state of Akwa Ibom and Messrs ALCON NigeriaLimited have entered into a NGN18.05bn (US$114mn) construction contract in Nigeria, whichincludes the development of an international terminal at Ibom International Airport. The airportstarted its commercial operations on September 29 2009 and has so far handled a total of403,663 passengers. The project is scheduled to be completed in 24 months.

Intels Nigeria was awarded a contract by the Nigerian government for Phase 4 of the Onne PortComplex at Port Harcourt in Rivers State. The US$370.5mn project includes land reclamation,the widening of the channel entry, the construction of three new berths and the Federal OceanTerminal, and the enhancement of existing facilities at the port. Intels, which has alreadycompleted the first three phases of the project, will undertake the work in order to allow the portto handle an increase in gas and oil shipments.

Nigeria has been rocked by a sharp increase in violence perpetrated by militant Islamists and retaliatoryforces, which threatens to escalate if not contained. Meanwhile, the removal of fuel subsidies has spurrednationwide protests, including a general strike, putting immense pressure on the government. The countrywill need to press ahead with ambitious economic and business environment reforms and develop a planto address the root causes of violence in the Niger Delta and the Middle Belt.

We expect Nigeria to continue to experience strong economic growth, bolstered increasingly byinvestment and the consumer sector. While significant hurdles will need to be surmounted, we expectthat, overall, 2012 will be an improvement over the growth seen in 2011.