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Nigeria Business Forecast Report Q1 2015

51 Pages BMI Research October 18, 2014 SKU: BMI5361188

Nigeria Business Forecast Report Q1 2015

Core Views

Although we continue to forecast robust economic growth in 2015and the years thereafter, the risks to the Nigerian economy haveincreased over recent quarters thanks to shifting dynamics in globaloil markets.

Nigeria's balance of payments position will come under renewedpressure as February 2015 elections approach. A balance of paymentscrisis is unlikely however owing to a healthy level of foreignexchange reserves. Over the longer term, Nigeria's external accountswill become increasingly susceptible to negative shocks owing to asubdued outlook for oil export growth.

September's hawkish monetary policy statement will calm lingeringfears that new central bank governor Godwin Emefiele will prematurelyloosen policy. This is important for macro stability given thatfood prices, rising banking sector liquidity and higher governmentspending ahead of the February 2015 election will increase inflationarypressures and exert depreciatory forces on the currency.

The People's Democratic Party (PDP) has recovered from someof the damage inflicted by defections in late 2013 and 2014 and isreasserting itself as Nigeria's dominant political force. The February2015 election will be the most closely fought in the country'sdemocratic history, but the power of incumbency, wrangling in theopposition and the fact that it remains the only truly national partymeans that the PDP is likely to win.

Major Forecast Changes

No major forecast changes.

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Nigeria Business Forecast Report Q1 2015

BMI Research
October 18, 2014

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