Morocco Autos Report Q3 2012

This year (2012) is set to be a momentous one for the Moroccan auto industry as the start of production at Renault’s new Melloussa plant marks a major shift in the nature of the country’s industry and market. Production will exceed 100,000 in 2012 and is set to exceed 400,000 by the end of the five-year BMI forecasting period. BMI expects that this new plant will spur greater investment in the country’s auto industry in general, as a sizeable domestic components industry is now viable. Companies have already begun to respond to these changes, notably Delphi’s decision to expand Moroccan production.

Sales in Morocco will not grow as rapidly as production. We forecast that the reliably and steady sales growth seen in previous years will continue, with 113,269 units expected to be sold in 2012, up from 107,480 in 2011. By the end of the five-year forecasting period in 2016, we anticipate annual sales of 143,662 units. The growth in sales will be largely driven by increased prosperity in the country as well as cheaper models available from domestic production and the elimination of import taxes on European models. The effect of rising incomes is particularly important, as we expect that car ownership rates will increase from around 87 per 1,000 people to 137 per 1,000 people by 2016. This said, Morocco’s economic performance has failed to meet expectations, though nevertheless economic growth in 2012 is expected to come in at a respectable 4.2%, under the government’s target of 5.5%. The country is also particularly vulnerable to the fallout of the eurozone crisis, something that could potentially derail Renault’s plans to ramp up production in the country.

A Moroccan DAF factory has produced the first ever locally assembled CF85. This is the first local assembly by the local firm, CFAO Motors Maroc. The plant is expected to assemble around five vehicles every week. The model is assembled from a complete knock-down kit shipped from the DAF factory in Eindhoven to the Casablanca factory. The CF85 model already has a certain popularity in Morocco, capturing 9% of the market in 2011 though CFAO Motors Maroc is aiming to increase market share to 11% in 2012. The company has handled DAF marketing and sales in Morocco since 2005.

Renault has also announced that the Tangiers plant will produce another Dacia model, the Dokker. The Dokker is a newly designed van, with the name chosen to highlight the space offered in the small van/crew van. In a novel move the model will only be on sale in Morocco, beginning June 2012, before being rolled out in other markets across Europe and the world.