Kuwait Business Forecast Report Q1 2015

BMI Research
October 18, 2014
51 Pages - SKU: BMI5361184
Countries covered: Kuwait

Kuwait Business Forecast Report Q1 2015

Core Views

We expect the Kuwaiti economy to perform relatively well over 2015and 2016, and retain our forecast for real GDP growth of 2.7% and2.5% respectively, from an estimated 2.9% in 2014. After a longperiod of stagnation, the Kuwaiti investment outlook appears tobe improving, while the prospects for consumption remain bright.

However, we again highlight Kuwait's ever-volatile political situationas the key downside risk to economic activity.

Kuwait has seen a flurry of populist legislation recently, includingseveral measures specifically targeting expatriate workers. This runsthe risk of increasing uncertainty within the private sector, as well ascementing perceptions of the country as a hub of policy instability.

We expect tensions to remain between the government and thelegislative branch, even with the election of a renewed 'loyalist'parliament.

We forecast consumer price inflation in Kuwait to average 3.8% and4.0% in 2015 and 2016 respectively, up from 3.0% in 2014. Whilewe expect a slight fall in Kuwaiti food inflation over the near termon the back of lower global prices, a tight supply picture in the realestate market will fuel housing inflation over the coming quarters,in a trend seen across the Gulf Cooperation Council.



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