Kenya Autos Report - Q4 2014

Business Monitor International
August 20, 2014
54 Pages - SKU: BMI5315674
Countries covered: Kenya

Kenya Autos Report - Q4 2014

As a result of a data released from the Kenyan Bureau of Statistics BMI has slightly downgraded its GDPforecast for 2014 to 5.0%, down from 5.7%. Even this slower acceleration will still be a significantimprovement compared to the low growth seen between 2008 and 2012, when annual real GDP expansionaveraged just 3.8%. Further supporting vehicle sales is the rising private consumption and increased dealerpresence in Kenya. As a result of this and off the back of strong new sales and production data for the firstfour months of 2014, BMI is forecasting total new and used vehicle sales growth to come in at 161,727units in 2018.

According to the Kenyan Motor Industry Association, in the eight months to August 2013 new vehicledealers sold 9,135 units compared to 8,117 units a year earlier.

BMI expects that as the passenger car market continues to face pressures from used vehicle importsindustry players will look to the commercial vehicle segment to expand their market share. In line with ourview, Scania who currently accounts for approximately 50% of the heavy truck market, has announced aninvestment of KES2.4bn (USD27.7mn) for Kenya, part of which has been spent on a new office in Nairobi,which will serve its East African business. Foton East Africa have also begun local production ofcommercial vehicles at their new Sh1.2bn assembly plant with a keen eye towards securing a significantmarket share in both Kenya and the wider region. Toyota Motor has entered the tractor market afterentering the bus and truck market after facing declining market share in H1 2013. Following the Dubaibasedconglomerate Al Futtaim group offering of USD86mn to acquire Kenyan car retailer CMCHoldings we have seen further progress with the deal now having been finalised. In line with BMI'sexpectations that there is potential for more such deals Nissan Motor and Renault Motor have alsoannounced their intentions for a joint venture purchase of a major dealer in Kenya though the dealer is stillyet to be confirmed. The recent growth in Kenya's CV segment also suggests there is still room for severalmore major players.



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