Kenya Autos Report Q1 2015

Business Monitor International
November 12, 2014
51 Pages - SKU: BMI5380247
Countries covered: Kenya

Kenya Autos Report Q1 2015

BMI has largely maintained its 2014 real GDP forecast at 5.1% and have upgraded its forecast for 2015 to6.6%. Our country risk team believes this economic expansion in 2015 will continue to be supported byrising private consumption growing by 5.3%, a relatively steady trade deficit, and positive investorsentiment as East Africa's commercial hub leaves a multi-year economic downturn. As a result of this andoff the back of new sales and production data for the BMI forecasts that total first vehicle registrationsgrowth over the period 2014-2018 will average 13.5%, with growth reaching 26.3% in 2014 and 10.3% in2015. BMI is also forecasting total vehicle production to grow from 6,948 units in 2013 to 9,588 units in2014. By 2018, BMI forecasts production growth will be 13,422; averaging 8.8% year-on-year (y-o-y)growth over the 2015-2018 forecast period.

BMI expects that as the passenger car market continues to face pressures from used vehicle importsindustry players will look to the commercial vehicle segment to expand their market share. In line with ourview, a number of international companies including Scania, Toyota Motor, General Motors Company(GM) and Foton East Africa have increased their investment in the Kenyan market, in particular in theCommercial Vehicle segment. We also see the potential for changes to the commercial vehicle landscape asproposed regulations pertaining to local involvement in production may reduce Chinese dominance in thesegment. The recent growth in Kenya's CV segment also suggests there is still room for several more majorplayers.



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