Japan Freight Transport Report Q1 2015

BMI Research
January 7, 2015
93 Pages - SKU: BMI5432582
Countries covered: Japan

Japan Freight Transport Report Q1 2015

Cargo volumes will grow in the low single percentage digits across Japan's main freight transport modes in2015. Our forecast is based on a fairly sombre outlook for the wider economy - GDP growth of less than 1%- and higher, but still slowing foreign trade expansion (growth of 4.1%, down from an estimated 4.7% in2014). By transport modes, rail freight will show the greatest dynamism.

BMI is bearish on Japan's economic prospects in 2015, with aggressively below-consensus projections forthe economy. While some predict 3.0% GDP growth our forecast is for expansion of only 0.8%, down on anestimated 0.9% in 2014. We attribute this disappointing outlook to the steep fall of the yen versus thecurrencies of Japan's main trading partners and the sales tax hike in April 2014. GDP fell quarter-on-quarterin Q214 and Q314, pushing the economy into technical recession. We continue to believe the government'squantitative easing (QE) efforts are counterproductive, boosting inflation but not lifting purchasing powerby consumers. Similarly, a weaker yen is good for exporters but not for domestic purchasing power. Thekey problem is that real wages continue to decline.



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