Japan After the Quake: Resurgence or Another Lost Decade?

Business Monitor International
August 5, 2011
56 Pages - SKU: BMI6486303
Countries covered: Japan

What Next For Japan’s Post-Crisis Prospects?

It has been almost six months since Japan suffered the triple earthquake-tsunami-nuclear disaster-the worst crisis in its post-World War II history. It will take many years before the full economic and political costs are known. Nonetheless, in this special report, we assess how the country has fared since the crisis, analysing both macroeconomic performance and specific industries.

Furthermore, we outline our thoughts on what the future holds for the world’s third largest economy, particularly focusing on the longer-term implications of the disaster.

From a macroeconomic perspective, we doubt whether a V-shaped recovery is on the cards. While it has been encouraging how quickly the economic downturn has stabilised, Japanese consumers are unlikely to loosen their purse strings anytime soon, reconstruction efforts will divert capital resources away from other sectors of the economy, and a slowdown in China will continue to cast an ominous shadow over the export sector. Many headwinds still exist, suggesting that a full recovery of the Japanese economy is unlikely. Our real GDP growth projection of -0.7% in 2011 is in line with consensus (-0.6%). However, it is the 2012 outlook where we differ, expecting growth to come in at 1.8% versus consensus expectations of 2.9%.

Our macro views are echoed at a sector level, with our retail, agribusiness, Information and Communication Technologies (ICT) and automotive teams expecting mixed performances. On the consumer front, a ‘back-to-basics’ mentality suggests that convenience store retailers are best positioned to outperform in a weak growth environment. Lingering concerns over local food safety will also spur agricultural imports. Meanwhile, faced with a precarious domestic outlook, ICT firms will, instead, turn to growing emerging market (EM) demand to boost their revenues, a strategy that is also being pursued by the autos sector with varying success.

While business strategies will differ across industries, the underlying theme is one of weak domestic activity in the coming quarters.



More General Retailing reports by Business Monitor International

Retail Report - Russia - Q3 2014 by Business Monitor International
Russia Retail Report Q3 2014BMI View: Russia's retail market is an extremely attractive investment prospect, with an increasinglyaffluent population leading to projected household spending growth ...
Retail Report - Philippines - Q3 2014 by Business Monitor International
Philippines Retail Report Q3 2014BMI View: An expanding population with increasing levels of disposable income should result in a strongrise in household spending across all ...
United Arab Emirates Retail Report Q3 2014 - United Arab by Business Monitor International
United Arab Emirates Retail Report Q3 2014BMI View: The UAE retail sector is forecast to continue to grow over the next few years, with strongunderlying ...
Retail Report - Serbia Q3 2014 by Business Monitor International
Serbia Retail Report Q3 2014BMI View: The retail market in Serbia continues to struggle in the short term, although medium termgrowth reveals opportunity for later ...
See all reports like this >>

More Japan General Retailing reports

Market Databook : Retail Building Construction in Japan to 2018 by Timetric
Retail Building Construction in Japan to 2018: Market DatabookSynopsisTimetric’s 'Retail Building Construction in Japan to 2018: Market Databook' contains detailed historic and forecast market value ...
Retailing in Japan by Euromonitor International
Retailing in JapanThe Japanese retailing industry performed well during 2013 as the country benefited from the policies which constitute ‘Abenomics’, which refers to the current ...
Direct Selling in Japan by Euromonitor International
Direct Selling in JapanDirect selling declined in current value by 3% in 2013. Demand for direct selling in Japan has been declining consistently over the ...
Value, Variety Stores and General Merchandise Retailers in Japan: Market Snapshot to 2017 by Canadean Ltd
Value, Variety Stores and General Merchandise Retailers in Japan: Market Snapshot to 2017SynopsisCanadean’s, Value, Variety Stores and General Merchandise Retailers in Japan: Market Snapshot to ...
See all reports like this >>

More Japan reports

D&B Country Report: Japan by Dun & Bradstreet Inc.
D&B Country Report. Comprehensive information for evaluating risks and opportunities when trading or investing in this country. Providing critical information and analysis on ...
See all reports like this >>

 

SELECT A LICENSE

    Online Download  USD 1,145  
 
US: 800.298.5699
Int'l: +1.240.747.3093
 

Share this report


    Other tasks

     
     
    Join Alert Me now!
    Receive bi-weekly email alerts on new market research

    Sign up today!