Italy Defence and Security Report Q1 2013


December 12, 2012
72 Pages - SKU: BMI4926293
License type:
Countries covered: Italy

BMI's Italy Defence & Security Report for Q113 examines the country's defence posture, defenceprocurement and defence industry. The report seeks to examine how the Italian government is attemptingto balance its defence budget amid the country's sluggish economic performance.

The report details the Italian armed forces structure, including its order of battle. In addition, it examinesthe government's efforts to streamline the size of the armed forces, and better configure them to performout-of-area operations. The report also discusses Italy's long-term procurement plans, and the country'srecent procurement trends.

Italy's defence sector faces a number of distinct challenges in the near future. The country is performing aprotracted reorientation of its strategic posture to essentially reconfigure its armed forces from theirerstwhile NATO posture – which sought to defend the southern part of the European continent againstSoviet Union and Warsaw Pact aggression – into an adaptable and agile force able to rapidly projectpower beyond Italy's borders. For this strategic aspiration to become a reality, the Italian government ispursuing a number of projects that seek to improve procurement platforms, enhancing the armed force'spower projection capabilities and providing force multiplier capability in theatre. As well as pursuingthese objectives, the Italian government is trying to achieve them in period of profound economicstagnation, which is having an adverse effect on the country's economy.

Over the last quarter, BMI has made a number of changes to its forecasts. These include:

A fully detailed order of battle for the Italian Army, Air Force and Navy.

An outline of the personnel and equipment modernisation initiatives ongoing in all three Italianservices.

Up to date information regarding procurement activity during Q412.


Executive Summary
SWOT Analysis
Italy Security SWOT
Italy Political SWOT
Italy Economic SWOT
Italy Business Environment SWOT
Global Political Outlook
Europe Security Overview
The Strategic Outlook For The 2010s
Europe In A Global Context
Europe's Key Security Issues Over The Coming Decade
The Future Of The Eurozone And EU
EU Expansion
NATO Expansion And Relations With The US
Post-Qadhafi Libya
Relations With Russia
Relations With Turkey
The Balkans
Organised Crime
Islamist Terrorism
The Greater Black Sea Region
The Armenia-Azerbaijan Dispute
Security Risk Analysis
BMI's Security Ratings
Table: Europe Security Risk Ratings
Table: Europe State Terrorism Vulnerability To Terrorism Index
Political Outlook
Domestic Politics
Monti Legacy Secure Despite Rise In Populism
Long-Term Political Outlook
Fiscal Rebalancing To Weigh On Social Cohesion
Italy Security Overview
Internal Security Situation
Organised Crime
Latest Developments
Timeline: Internal Threats
Table: Insurgent Groups
External Security Situation
International Terrorism
Latest Developments
Timeline: External Threats
Armed Forces And Government Spending
Defence Decision Making
Grand Strategy
Order of Battle
Defence Modernisation
International Deployments and Joint Exercises
Table: Italy's Foreign Deployments
Weapons Of Mass Destruction
Market Overview
Arms Trade Overview
Procurement Trends and Developments
Table: Italy's Key Defence Players
Industry Forecast Scenario
Table: Italy's Armed Forces Personnel, 2002-2009 ('000, unless otherwise stated)
Table: Italy's Manpower Available For Military Services, 2010-2017 (aged 16-49, unless otherwise stated)
Defence Expenditure
Table: Italy's Defence Expenditure, 2010-2017
Table: Italy's Defence Expenditure Scenario – Changing % Of GDP, 2010-2017 (US$mn)
Table: Italy's Defence Imports, 2010-2017 (US$mn)
Table: Italy's Defence Exports, 2010-2017 (US$mn)
Table: Italy's Defence Trade Balance, 2010-2017 (US$mn)
Key Risks To BMI's Forecast Scenario
Macroeconomic Forecast
Economy To Flatline In 2013
Table: Italy – GDP By Expenditure, Current Prices Breakdown, 2009-2016
Company Profiles
AgustaWestland
Avio
Fincantieri
Finmeccanica
MBDA
Methodology
How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts
Defence Industry
Sources

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