Iran Freight Transport Report Q3 2012

BMI is forecasting a recession in Iran in 2012 and 2013 as the Middle Eastern country struggles to maintain itself economically in the face of sanctions against its crude oil exports, the primary source of revenue in the country. Despite this BMI's freight transport team projects growth at the country's primary container port Bandar Abbas, albeit at less than 1%. The other freight modes of air, rail and road are to experience similarly sedate growth this year.

Headline Industry Data

2012 Port of Bandar Abbas throughput growth forecast is 0.6% and is forecast to average 3.0% a year to 2016.

2012 rail freight tonnes-km growth forecast is 1.5% and is projected to average 1.9% over the forecast period.

2012 air freight tonnes-km growth forecast is 0.6% and will average 0.7% a year to 2016.

2012 total trade is forecast to experience a real contraction of 14.5% in 2012, followed by a contraction of 8.0% in 2013, before returning to growth in 2014.

Key Industry Trends Iran Agrees To Connect Tajikistan To Ocean Iran's foreign minister Ali-Akbar Salehi revealed on March 8 that the government has agreed to link Tajikistan with the ocean, with the aim of enhancing the landlocked country's trade activities. During a meeting with his Tajikistani counterpart, Hamrokhon Zarif, Salehi said the Iranian government would help the capital, Dushanbe, improve its transit roads. Supreme Leader of the Islamic Revolution Ayatollah Ali Khamenei had earlier commented that Tehran and Dushanbe share common languages, religions and cultural similarities.

Iran Air To Sell Half Of Its Shares Farhad Parvaresh, the managing director of Iran's state-owned flag carrier Iran Air, announced on February 26 2012 that the company intends to sell a 50% plus one share stake by the end of the current Iranian calendar year (March 19 2012). The total value of the stake is currently worth IRR14.4trn (USD1.16bn), Parvaresh added.

2012 Political Impact On Crude Oil Shipping Emanating From Iran BMI believes that the latest round of sanctions imposed upon Iran, which are aimed specifically at the country's crude oil exports, including its transportation, will shake up the crude oil tanker sector in 2012.

Tankers operating between Iran and Japan, South Korea and India will be the most affected as vessel insurance dries up and these countries look to comply with the spirit of the Western sanctions.

Key Risks To Outlook There are numerous risks to our outlook and forecasts for Iran, largely stemming from the country's alleged nuclear weapons development programme, and the effect the Western sanctions targeting this have on the country's trade and economy. Elections in March 2012 add an extra element of risk over the coming quarter should they result in political violence and Arab Spring type protests. Equally, should Iran return to negotiations in a significant manner, and sanctions are slackened, then upside risk could come into play.