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Iran Autos Report Q3 2015

56 Pages BMI Research June 24, 2015 SKU: BMI5600237

Iran Autos Report Q3 2015

Our view that the P5+1 nations (Russia, China, the US, the UK, France plus Germany) will reach apermanent deal with Iran regarding its nuclear programme by June 30 is hugely positive for the recoveryand future development of the autos sector (see 'Nuclear Deal To Be Reached In June', March 24). Accessto kits and components from foreign partners means that we now expect to see total vehicle productionincrease 27.8% in 2015, led by 30.0% growth in the production of passenger cars. At 1.394mn units, thiswould still leave output short of its 2011 high of 1.648mn, but we expect output to ramp up to over 2mnunits by the end of our forecast period in 2019, based on the anticipated projects by carmakers waiting toinvest in the sector.

These new projects in the local assembly industry, plus the freedom to export fully built vehicles to Iranmeans we also have a more upbeat forecast for sales growth of 35.0% in 2015 to 1.557mn units. This willbring the market much closer, but again slightly short of its 2011 level of 1.590mn units. However, giventhe number of new brands we would expect to see in the market, as well as our forecast for privateconsumption to start gaining momentum from 2016, we expect to see the market expand to almost 2.5mnunits by 2019.

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Iran Autos Report Q3 2015

BMI Research
June 24, 2015

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