BMI View: The Indonesian consumer electronics has the potential to be a medium-term outperformer dueto broad based economic growth, low device penetration rates and vendor investment in local presenceover recent years. However, in the short term the market continues to be disrupted by rupiah depreciationagainst the US dollar which was a squeeze on demand in 2014, and will continue into 2015, albeit to alesser extent. Nonetheless, we have a bullish outlook for consumer electronics spending growth in Indonesiaover the medium term to 2019. There is however potential downside from disruption as a result of mootedsmartphone import taxes and other import restrictions - but the medium-term outlook remains positive.
Overall market growth will see the market reach USD20.3bn in 2019, equal to a compound annual growthrate of 5.0% in US dollar terms 2015-2019.
Headline Expenditure Projections
Computer Hardware Sales: USD6.8bn in 2015 to USD9.4bn in 2019, compound annual growth rate(CAGR) of 6.8% 2015-2019. Due to low penetration we expect continued growth in notebook volumes,alongside booming volumes in the tablet market.