Hungary Freight Transport Report Q3 2012

Following a year which BMI believes saw growth in all freight modes but one, 2012 will signal a slowdown, with moderate decrease in Hungary's freight volumes as the country is projected to dip back into recession.

Total trade is projected to slow, with our Country Risk desk forecasting a year-on-year increase of 2.72% in 2012 following a growth of 7.4% in 2011.

Road freight is to continue to dominate the sector, but is projected to decrease by 1.5% in 2012. The sector defied the downturn and so far appears to have defied EU pledges of a decrease in road haulage across the region. That is not to say, however, that road freight's market share is safe. BMI notes that rail is the likeliest candidate in Hungary's freight transport mix to benefit from any diversification away from road.

Headline Industry Data

2012 air freight tonnage is expected to decline by 3%

2012 rail freight is forecast to decline by 1.5%

2012 road freight is forecast to decline by 1.5%

2012 inland waterway freight is forecast to decline by 1.8%

2012 total real trade growth is forecast at 2.7%. Key Industry Trends Major Logistics Company Renews Fleet, Hires More Staff Waberer's Holding, Hungary's major logistics provider with operations focused on road haulage in Central and Eastern Europe, plans to replace 600 of its vehicles or almost one-quarter of its fleet in 2012. According to development plans for 2012, that were earlier accepted by the company's board, a further 150 tractor-trailers will be added to its fleet and it will employ 150 more staff.

Rail Cargo Hungaria Expands, Receives Fine Rail Cargo Hungaria carried on its strategy of increasing its market share in the Hungarian rail freight market by signing another long-term agreement with the provider of railway construction, maintenance and renewals services in Hungary. Meanwhile, it has also become one of the three railway companies which were fined for cartel activity.

Turkish Cargo Increases Exposure To Hungary Turkish Airlines' freight unit Turkish Cargo has increased the frequency of its flights to Budapest to twice weekly. The company plans further increases in frequency and capacity.

Risks to Outlook With the eurozone economy set to contract by 0.5% in 2012, and given the growing likelihood of a further escalation in the region's sovereign debt crisis at some point in the foreseeable future, the country's external environment remains decidedly weak and Hungary's growth outlook is threatened by a number of downside risks. The major downside risk for freight operators' volumes in Hungary is the likely slowing in growth of the country's exports, with Hungary's top trade partners located in Europe. Economies that are more highly integrated with the eurozone stand to lose the most in 2012 as BMI Country Risk team forecasts the bloc entering recessionary territory. Hungary, along with the Czech Republic, is the most exposed to eurozone demand in the Central and Eastern European region, meaning that our expectation for an easing in eurozone imports in 2012 will translate into slower export growth in Hungarian economy.

Domestic demand has yet to stage a meaningful recovery in Hungary, meaning imports will not significantly drive up the growth of freight volumes, as we still expect household expenditure, gross fixed capital formation and government spending to all register real declines in 2012. Hungary's role as a conduit for freight transport, with a number of pan-European transport corridors crossing the country, is also exposed. Any slowdown or decline in European trade volumes would hit freight volumes in Hungary and hit the country's freight transport operators.