Mobile market growth has stalled in 2014 and consequently BMI does not believe that there is much scope for organic growth on the Hong Kong mobile market. However, the recent spectrum auction will boost 4G usage as data usage is expected to be one of the key drivers for Hong Kong's telecoms sector over the next few years. This is also likely to reflect on the increasing revenues of the operators. The Hong Kong government is actively promoting the territory as a regional hub for data centres, and BMI believes Hong Kong has the right characteristics to attract data centre investments.
Latest data from the OFCA showed there were 17.382mn mobile subscribers at the end of September 2014, up 1% since the beginning of the year. We forecast 18.889mn mobile subscribers by the end of our five-year forecast in 2019, a 251.7% penetration rate.
Based on full year data from the regulator for broadband subscribers, we forecast the number of broadband internet subscriptions to reach 2.665mn by 2019, a 35.5% penetration rate.