Germany Defence and Security Report Q2 2012

The defence posture of Germany has been controversial domestically since the end of World War II, and little is likely to change in this regard in the future, given the pacifistic nature of a significant element of the German population. The country’s participation in the ongoing NATO campaign in Afghanistan remains deeply controversial domestically, and politicians and public opinion alike will no doubt be relieved once the country’s intervention there ceases in the 2014/15 time frame. This will be in line with NATO’s overall goals of vacating Afghanistan by this date, and handing over domestic security duties to the Afghan National Army and Police Force.

Berlin is now looking closely at the posture of its armed forces in the post-Afghanistan environment, closely following France and the United Kingdom, its two comparably sized military partners in the European Union and NATO. Over the long term, defence planners in Germany are trying to reorient the country’s armed forces towards a smaller, more mobile, posture. Germany’s position as the strategic centre of Europe, buttressing east and west, has largely dissipated since the end of the Cold War. Similarly, the ethnic upheaval that threw the Balkans into a costly civil war during the 1990s has largely subsided into an uneasy peace. Although this region remains tense, it is arguably becoming more of a law-and-order challenge rather than a potential flashpoint for a renewed European conflict.

Germany is contemplating the forces it will need to deploy abroad in support of UN, EU and NATO future operations. Germany’s historical legacy means that it is still most likely to act in this respect as part of an international coalition of nations, rather than unilaterally. Recent deployments to Afghanistan and the Balkans have underlined the fact that Germany has an increasingly outward-looking expeditionary mindset when it comes to military operations abroad. That said, for the foreseeable future, the deployment of German forces beyond the country’s borders is still likely to be viewed with suspicion and outright opposition in a significant part of the country’s population.

To facilitate the increased agility of the German armed forces, the government is performing a number of important restructuring initiatives across the army, air force and navy. Although the 2012 defence budget is expected to increase, over the long term, it will be reduced. These reductions will also see a downsizing of the army’s personnel strength and a reorientation of some of its formations. Reductions are planned for orders of new armoured vehicles, and existing armour inventories in the German army will be downsized.

Moreover, the army aviation component of the force will see reductions to its future attack and mediumlift helicopter fleets. Neither will the air force escape the fleet reductions. Order sizes for new turboprop airlifters, some unmanned aerial vehicles and Multi-Role Combat Aircraft (MRCA) will decline, while existing MRCA, surface-to-air missile and freighter fleets will be reduced. For the navy, the cuts do not seem quite so severe, although the order of a new class of corvette has been reduced, and the force still has an existing, as yet unfulfilled, requirement for new naval helicopters.