Cote d'Ivoire Pharmaceuticals and Healthcare Report Q1 2013

BMI View: Côte d'Ivoire has traditionally turned to expensive drug imports to meet national demandbecause domestic drug production facilities are minimal. But this quarter has seen steps taken to improvenational manufacturing facilities, with Chinese and Cuban pharmaceutical firms revealing plans to set upplants in the country. But private investment is the exception, rather than the rule, in the country, withCôte d'Ivoire depending upon historical ties with France, Morocco and Tunisia for aid and investment.

Considerable risks remain for firms in Côte d'Ivoire, with tension at the border with Ghana andopposition plans to overthrow the government highlighting how security is an ongoing concern.Economically, Côte d'Ivoire is a world leader in cocoa production; as a result, it is vulnerable tofluctuations in demand and price.

Headline Expenditure Projections

Pharmaceuticals: XOF170.4bn (US$360mn) in 2011 to XOF179.2bn (US$347mn) in 2012;+5.2% in local currency terms and -3.8% in US dollar terms. Slight downward revision becauseof exchange rate differences.

Healthcare: XOF571.6bn (US$1.21bn) in 2011 to XOF601.0bn (US$1.16bn) in 2012; +5.2% inlocal currency terms and -3.8% in US dollar terms. Forecast revised downwards slightly becauseincreased security risks may affect spending.

Medical Devices: XOF19.26bn (US$41mn) in 2011 to XOF20.48bn (US$40mn) in 2012;+6.3% in local currency terms and -2.7% in US dollar terms. Forecast revised downwardsslightly compared to Q412.

Risk/Reward Rating: In Q113, Côte d'Ivoire kept its position in the penultimate rank in BMI's RRRs forthe MEA region. Its overall score remains at 28.0 out of 100, significantly below the regional average of44.2. Côte d'Ivoire only outranks Sudan in the table and is just under two percentage points (pp) behindZimbabwe.

Key Trends And Developments

Crude oil and natural gas producer Canadian Natural Resources donated CAD143mn to Côted'Ivoire in health equipment in October 2012.

In October 2012, Cuba's Labiofam signed an agreement with Côte d'Ivoire's Ministry of Healthto work together on a malaria control programme and the construction of a production facility.

China's Fosun Pharmaceutical Group set up a plant in Côte d'Ivoire in July 2012 tomanufacture raw materials for drug production. Its key product is an anti-malarial drug.BMI Economic View: Côte d'Ivoire's economy balances on demand for cocoa, its main export, althoughits natural resources are gaining the interest of international firms. We have raised our full year GDPforecast for 2012 to 8.4%, but risks remain, and as a result, we have a lower forecast for growth for 2013,with real GDP forecast to stand at 6.5%.

BMI Political View: Côte d'Ivoire is gradually gaining political stability, but risks to security remain, asillustrated by outbreaks of violence at the border with Ghana in a leaked UN report that claimed theopposition had plans to overturn the government.