China Tourism Report Q2 2012

Official Forecasts Point To Gloomy 2012 Although full-year tourist arrival data has not been released, urban data reporting suggests the sector performed well in 2011, if not yet back to pre-2008 levels.

Figures were particularly encouraging in Beijing, with the capital receiving 5mn foreign visitors throughout the year, according to the city government.

This represented year-on-year (y-o-y) growth of 6.0%, on par with the 6.3% y-o-y growth rate recorded for China as a whole in 2010.

If this rate was maintained across China, the industry will have had a solid if not spectacular year.

This is only to be expected given the increasingly uncertain global economic outlook.

Chinese tourism officials view the prospects for the industry in 2012 with increasing gloom.

According to a report by the China Tourism Academy (CTA) in January 2012, foreign visitor arrivals are forecast to grow by only 1.2% y-o-y this year.

More positively, domestic tourism continued to boom in 2011, with Beijing reporting that domestic visitors increased by 15% y-o-y in 2011 to 200mn.

This trend appears to have been repeated across the country, with the CTA report describing a far more positive view of domestic tourism in 2012, including forecasting a 10% increase in arrivals.

Hotel Industry Continues Expansion Despite the expected slowdown in 2012, China’s hotel industry is continuing to grow.

A report presented to the legislature in December 2011 by the China National Tourism Administration (CNTA) said the number of star-rated hotels in the country stood at 13,908, including 607 five-star hotels.

CNTA director Shao Qiwei said there were 23,315 travel agencies in the country, of which 1,387 were able to offer outbound tourism, allowing them to liaise with foreign tourism agencies and arrange tours for international visitors.

China’s hotel owners are also offering increasingly novel accommodation options.

A former Soviet aircraft carrier has been refitted as a hotel and is due to open in 2012 as part of a military theme park in Tianjin.

Airline Sector Performs Well In 2011 The boom in domestic tourism has helped fuel growth in China’s airline sector, despite the slower than was hoped growth international tourist arrivals.

According to the Civil Aviation Administration of China (CAAC), passenger traffic totalled 290mn in 2011, an increase of 8.2% y-o-y.

However, the CAAC also warned, without referring to any specific airlines, that overall profit in the sector had fallen by 26% y-o-y as a result of higher fuel costs and competition from the expanding high-speed rail network.

This indicates that many of the airlines will post lower than expected profits for 2011, despite rising passenger numbers.

Nonetheless, the expanding business should stand airlines in good stead, especially if the economy begins to pick up towards the end of 2012.