China Shipping Report - Q4 2014

Business Monitor International
September 10, 2014
128 Pages - SKU: BMI5325554
Countries covered: China

China Shipping Report - Q4 2014

BMI View: We maintain our cautious view for China's shipping sector. While the outlook for China'straditional economic growth drivers such as heavy industry and real estate construction remains cloudy, theoutlook facing the more consumer-focussed industries is relatively strong over the medium term. Overall,though, as the traditional sectors remain the dominant drivers of the economy, we remain cautious in ourreal GDP growth outlook. We expect the economy to expand by 7.1% in 2014, before slowing to average6.1% over the next five years and caution that there are downside risks to this forecast.

After a decade-long cycle of high commodities prices partly boosted by stellar demand growth in China, theongoing slowdown of the country's economy and rebalancing away from metal-intensive manufacturing andconstruction sectors raises questions over the future of China's commodities demand and import needs, witha possible negative knock-on effect on dry bulk imports in particular. We also caution that the inevitablebursting of the ongoing credit bubble could serve to undermine the profitability of the consumer-focusedindustries.



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