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China Shipping Report Q3 2015

107 Pages BMI Research May 13, 2015 SKU: BMI5556365

China Shipping Report Q3 2015

BMI View: We maintain our cautious view for China's shipping sector. China's economic growth in thecoming decade will be much slower than in the last, as the savings rate declines, the economicliberalisation process slows and population growth falls. These dynamics will result in real GDP growthaveraging 6.0% over the next decade as opposed to the 10.1% average seen over the past decade. Privateconsumption will be a major outperformer, averaging growth of 8.1% and rising in importance as a shareof GDP. This is good news for the country's container shipping sector, which should see a boost in volumesas a result.

China will see the fastest growth rates in the region for private consumption. Indeed, we forecast averageannual real private consumption growth of 8.0%, over the next five years. These high growth rates chimewith the rebalancing of the economy towards greater private consumption, and as such, will see privateconsumption growth remain strong, despite our forecasts for a slowdown in the overall economy's realgrowth rate to below 7.0% over the coming years. Consumption as a proportion of the economy has been onan uptrend over recent years following a post-GFC decline, and we expect this trend to pick up. In 2014, weestimate that consumption as a proportion of the economy exceeded 50.0% for the first time since 2006,rising to 50.4% versus 49.8% in 2013. Along with the strong CNY, the government has also been followingthrough with its pledge to liberalise interest rates, raising the cap on the deposit rate payable by banks to130% of the People's Bank of China (PBoC)'s benchmark rate (versus 120% previously) in tandem with itsrecent monetary policy decision. Meanwhile, while corporate and local government indebtedness will likelyrequire a degree of deleveraging over the coming years, household balance sheets remain in relatively soundshape, and private consumption has significant room to rise. Government consumption, too, is set to rise, asBeijing looks to roll out a more expansionary fiscal programme for 2015.

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China Shipping Report Q3 2015

BMI Research
May 13, 2015

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Report with 3 quarterly updates
Report with 3 quarterly updates - 3 User License
Report with 3 quarterly updates - 5 User License
Report with 3 quarterly updates - Departmental/Site License
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