China Shipping Report Q2 2015

BMI Research
February 18, 2015
103 Pages - SKU: BMI5470773
Countries covered: China

China Shipping Report Q2 2015

BMI View: We maintain our cautious view for China's shipping sector. China's economic growth in thecoming decade will be much slower than in the last, as the savings rate declines, the economicliberalisation process slows, and population growth falls. These dynamics will result in real GDP growthaveraging 6.0% over the next decade as opposed to the 10.1% average seen over the past decade. Privateconsumption will be a major outperformer, averaging growth of 8.1% and rising in importance as a shareof GDP. This is good news for the country's container shipping sector, which should see a boost in volumesas a result.

China will see the fastest growth rates in the region for private consumption. Indeed, we forecast averageannual real private consumption growth of 8.0%, over the next five years. These high growth rates chimewith the rebalancing of the economy towards greater private consumption, and as such, will see privateconsumption growth remain strong, despite our forecasts for a slowdown in the overall economy's realgrowth rate to below 7.0% over the coming years. After a decade-long cycle of high commodities pricespartly boosted by stellar demand growth in China, the ongoing slowdown of the country's economy andrebalancing away from metal-intensive manufacturing and construction sectors raises questions over thefuture of China's commodities demand and import needs, with a possible negative knock-on effect on drybulk imports in particular. We also caution that the inevitable bursting of the ongoing credit bubble couldserve to undermine the profitability of the consumer-focused industries.



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