China Shipping Report Q1 2015

Business Monitor International
November 26, 2014
131 Pages - SKU: BMI5392025
Countries covered: China

China Shipping Report Q1 2015

BMI View: We maintain our cautious view for China's shipping sector. China's economic growth in thecoming decade will be much slower than in the last, as the savings rate declines, the economicliberalisation process slows, and population growth falls. These dynamics will result in real GDP growthaveraging 6.0% over the next decade as opposed to the 10.1% average seen over the past decade. Privateconsumption will be a major outperformer, averaging growth of 8.1% and rising in importance as a shareof GDP. As a result, while the outlook for China's traditional economic growth drivers such as heavyindustry and real estate construction remains cloudy, the outlook facing the more consumer-focussedindustries is relatively strong over the medium term.

After a decade-long cycle of high commodities prices partly boosted by stellar demand growth in China, theongoing slowdown of the country's economy and rebalancing away from metal-intensive manufacturing andconstruction sectors raises questions over the future of China's commodities demand and import needs, witha possible negative knock-on effect on dry bulk imports in particular. We also caution that the inevitablebursting of the ongoing credit bubble could serve to undermine the profitability of the consumer-focusedindustries.



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