China Pharmaceuticals and Healthcare Report Q3 2012

BMI View: Despite the country’s calls for cheaper pharmaceutical access, we maintained that China will be a highly attractive market for pharmaceutical players. In addition, its strong pharmaceutical and medical devices trade in 2011 and in the first quarter of 2012 highlight that the general weakness in its macroeconomic has not filter down to the sector and instead the sector performance will largely hinge on the country’s healthcare reform plans and the subsequent release of its Second National Essential Drug

List this year. Headline Expenditure Projections

Pharmaceuticals: CNY432bn (US66.7bn) in 2011to CNY523bn (US$81.7bn) in 2012; +20.9% in local currency and +22.1% in US dollar terms. Forecast broadly in line with Q212.

Healthcare: CNY2297bn (US$355bn) in 2011 to CNY2,595bn (US$406bn) in 2012; +13% in local currency terms and +14.1% in US dollar terms. Forecast up from Q212 following receipt of new data.

Medical Devices: CNY117bn (US$18.2bn) in 2011 to CNY146bn (US$22.8bn) in 2012; +24.4% in local currency terms and +25.7% in US dollar terms. Forecast up from Q212 due to stronger than expected trade.

Risk/Reward Rating: China maintains its score of 62.5 from Q212 and moved up the ranks from the firth to the fourth position on our proprietary index. This is largely due to the decline in Singapore’s score from 63.4 in Q212 to 61.9 in this quarter.

Key Trends And Developments

In May 2012, The president of J&J's Xian-Janssen Pharmaceutical joint venture, Thad Huston, said the firm is interested in acquiring local firms or products in mental health, oncology, immunology, vaccines and over-the-counter drugs in order to continue its growth in China. Huston specifically said the firm is 'not interested in doing a generic or traditional Chinese medicine (TCM), for example'.

In April 2012, Chinese police arrested 22 people for producing and selling pharmaceutical capsules containing high levels of chromium. The police detained 11 people from four manufacturing firms in Xinchang, a major production base, a public security bureau spokesperson said. According to reports, 43 capsule manufacturing firms will be inspected by the police. The State Food and Drug Administration has released an emergency notice ordering the suspension of sales and consumption of drugs packed into the contaminated capsules. Drugmakers will face legal action if the results of the inspection show they were unable to meet government standards.

In March 2012, China is intending to launch a healthcare scheme to cover migrant workers' medical insurance when they seek treatment in places other than their home town. The announcement was made by Minister of Health Chen Zhu at a national conference in Zhejiang province. He said the government is likely to select one or two provinces from the prosperous regions of the Yangtze River Delta, the Pearl River Delta and the Pan-Bohai Economic Zone to pilot the plan, before expanding it to more provinces during the 12th five-year plan period (2011- 2015).

BMI Economic View: China's real GDP came in at 8.1% year-on-year (y-o-y) and 7.2% quarter-onquarter (q-o-q) on a seasonally adjusted basis in Q112, much weaker than consensus expectations. Unlike the situation facing the economy in Q109, when a recovery in exports combined with a fiscal stimulus programme resulted in a V-shaped recovery, this time around we expect continued lacklustre growth even as the central banks is likely to loosen monetary policy. As such, we are sticking with our 2012 growth forecast of 7.5%.

BMI Political View: The ousting of Chongqing municipality leader Bo Xilai has created some near-term uncertainty that is likely to weigh on equity markets as fears mount that Chongqing's breakneck economic growth rate will suffer. That said, we view the news as a positive for China's longer-term political and economic health, as it may suggest reformists within China's elite are grabbing the balance of power in a long struggle between the rival political factions.