Bulgaria Oil and Gas Report Q3 2012

BMI View: Infighting between local authorities and key refinery operator Lukoil hardly bodes well for the downstream oil segment, while upstream prospects rest on early and significant success at Black Sea drilling operations. It had been thought that shale gas prospects could stimulate long-term supply, but the proposed ban on fraccing means rapid progress is unlikely. Meanwhile, energy import dependency creeps steadily higher.

The main trends and developments we highlight for Bulgaria’s Oil and Gas sector are: On January 18, 2012, the Bulgarian Parliament enacted legislation that bans fracture stimulation (fraccing) in the Republic of Bulgaria. It had been considering an outright ban on shale oil and gas production through fraccing due to environmental concerns following widespread protests against the unconventional procedure. It has therefore suspended a shale gas exploration permit it had granted earlier to US-based oil major Chevron, in spite of the country’s speculated 1,000bn cubic metres (bcm) of shale gas potential.

Bulgarian gas consumption is rising well ahead of domestic supply. Although gas output may reach 1.2bcm by 2014/15, net imports by 2016 could reach 2.3bcm, rising further to a possible 3.4bcm by 2021.

In November 2009, Bulgaria and Azerbaijan signed a memorandum under which Bulgaria plans to import about 1bcm of natural gas from the Central Asian country from 2014.

Oil demand growth, already modest before the current economic downturn, will make little progress until GDP growth accelerates, which suggests consumption may reach just 106,000 barrels per day (b/d) by 2016 and 116,000b/d by 2021. Imports are expected to grow in line with consumption, as exploration efforts by small independent oil companies are likely to deliver increased domestic crude volumes.

A turnkey project-implementation contract was signed in Sofia during January 2012 for a heavy-residue hydrocracking complex to be built at the Lukoil Neftochim Burgas refinery. Implementation will allow it to increase the output of Euro-5 diesel fuel by 1.2mn tonnes per annum (tpa) and also to end production of high-sulphur fuel oil. Commissioning of the new complex is expected in January 2015. Lukoil was to have invested US$240mn in the plant in 2011, but has been battling with local authorities over its operator licence.

Bulgaria is set to import 95,000-105,000b/d of crude annually over the next five years, implying costs of around US$3.76bn in 2012, easing slightly to US$3.69bn by 2016. Gas imports of 2.0-2.3bcm per annum during the forecast period mean total petroleum costs will be US$4.80bn by 2016, rising to US$5.59bn by 2021.At the time of writing we assume an OPEC basket oil price for 2012 of US$111.47/bbl, falling to US$107.00/bbl in 2013.