Brazil Metals Report Q4 2012

Growth For Global Games, But Challenges Remain

Metal consumption growth in Brazil will be driven by the construction sector in the coming years asinfrastructure spending is ramped up. In particular, we highlight preparations to host the 2014 FIFAWorld Cup and the 2016 Olympic Games in Rio de Janeiro. We forecast steel consumption growth of1.0% in 2012, before a pickup in subsequent years. Annual growth should average 5.6% over the 2012-2016 period, buoyed by healthy infrastructure spending. We forecast infrastructure industry value to growby an average of 6.8% over the same period.

Production growth will disappoint previous years' ambitious expectations, as weak margins will continueto force a rationalisation of the sector. This trend is illustrated by ThyssenKrupp, Germany's biggeststeelmaker, considering wooing suitors for its loss-making steel mills in Brazil.

Turning to the aluminium sector, energy costs account for nearly 35% of total production costs in Brazil.This is relatively high when compared with global standards. This has led to production declines over thepast few years and even talks of facility closures by the major aluminium producers in the country.However, the Brazilian government is currently considering power sector reforms that should be able toaddress these concerns.