Australia Freight Transport Report Q3 2014

Business Monitor International
May 14, 2014
109 Pages - SKU: BMI5247011
Countries covered: Australia

Australia Freight Transport Report Q3 2014

It is our view that the Australian economy is not yet out of the woods, despite improving near-termeconomic indicators and more optimistic sentiment in the financial markets. With the capital investment inthe mining sector set to slow significantly, and worth almost twice the size of work in the residential realestate market, we do not expect increased investment in the housing sector and related-spillover effects tobe sufficient. With our expectations for the unemployment rate to take a turn for the worse in the comingmonths, we expect real GDP growth to slow further to 2.0% in 2014, from 2.4% in 2013.

Meanwhile, we believe that the sharp increase in Australian exports in January will wane over the comingmonths on the back of our downbeat view for demand growth for iron ore from the Chinese steel sector.

The freight industry will be sure to keep a keen eye on developments. Indeed, given that the growth in ironore exports contributed more than 40% of the increase in Australian merchandise exports in January (andboosted the trade surplus to AUD2.9bn), we do not expect the surge to pose significant upside risks to ouroutlook for Australia's fortunes in the coming quarters.



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