Algeria Petrochemicals Report Q3 2014

Business Monitor International
May 14, 2014
104 Pages - SKU: BMI5247007
Countries covered: Algeria

Algeria Petrochemicals Report Q3 2014

Algeria is set for a surge in petrochemicals output growth this year, provided plans go ahead as scheduled.

With a lacklustre domestic market, producers will be reliant on export markets to fill the order books.

Algeria's petrochemicals market is likely to come under increasing pressure with slower growth in demand.

BMI's Country Risk team has become more negative on the near-term macroeconomic outlook for thecountry, having revised down its 2014 GDP growth forecast from 4.4%, to 3.2%. Indeed, we now feel thatthe economy will grow below potential over the medium term. Given continued delays in investment in theenergy sector, net hydrocarbons exports will remain flat over the coming years. The government's inabilityto liberalise the economy and declining public revenues will also constrain both private and publicinvestment. We project real GDP growth averaging just 3.6% over the 2014-18 period. Against thisdeteriorating backdrop, we feel that it is right to adopt a cautious near-term stance. We now believe thatnew vehicle sales could fall by around 3% in 2014, before a recovery begins in 2015.

This quarter, BMI is less upbeat about the prospects for growth in the Algerian petrochemicals market inresponse to a downgrade in GDP growth and the continued slow pace of industrial growth. We now feelthat the economy will grow below potential over the medium term. Declining hydrocarbon exports willensure that the economy expands below potential, a trend which we expect to continue over the mediumterm.



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