Singapore Food and Drink Report Q4 2010Business IntelligenceSeptember 23, 2010 66 Pages - SKU: BTAI2831130 |
| Countries covered: Singapore BMI View: The Singaporean economy has enjoyed a robust recovery and this has filtered through into consumer confidence and spending so far this calendar year. That said, this remains a very mature market, while its tiny population is a further limiting factor and consequently economic growth has not translated into a surge in industry dynamism. Notably though, high spending does mean that opportunities for premiumisation remain, even allowing for industry crowding. Headline Industry Data Mass Grocery Retail Sales are forecast to increase by 25.2% to 2014 and by 4% in 2010. A reasonable growth forecast for such a mature market, hypermarkets will be the outperformer due to the impact the opening of just one store would have on total sales levels Soft Drink Sales (KRW) to grow by 17.1% to 2014 and by 2.1% in 2010 having contracted in 2009. Sustained new product development will drive growth Alcoholic Drink Sales (KRW) to increase by 25.4% to 2014; wine, from its relatively low base, will outperform, as is the case of much of developed Asia Industry Trends & Developments Inward Investment - Japanese brewer Kirin announced in July 2010 that it was to acquire a 14.7% stake in Singapore’s largest beverage company Fraser and Neave (F&N) in a bid to compensate for Japan’s sluggish demand by expanding its soft drinks and alcohol division internationally. Whilst Singapore’s alcoholic and soft drinks sector are both mature markets they do still offer opportunities for growth as the above forecasts demonstrate. F&N’s international presence would also have been a motivating factor in Kirin’s decision, although the Japanese firm has focused much of its initial international diversification efforts of the higher-spending Asia Pacific economies where spending habits are more closely aligned with those of its domestic market. Looking Outbound - Whilst Kirin entered Singapore as part of its international expansion drive, many Singaporean firms are looking to expand outside of the country. Due to geographical constraints and market maturity many of the country’s leading food and drink processors are increasingly seeking opportunities overseas in order to gain new market share. Recently, Singapore’s BreadTalk has reiterated its plans to do just this stating in late May 2010 that it plans to more than triple the number of its Asian outlets over the next two years, with China leading the business expansion. Risks to Outlook Although we are already projecting a very bullish outlook for Singapore’s economy, we believe that risks to our outlook are weighted to the upside. Our core scenario assumes that real economic output will shrink on a sequential basis over the next two quarters. Should the global economy prove to be more resilient than we expect, it is not inconceivable to imagine Singapore’s real GDP growth topping 15.0% this year and exceeding our 3.3% forecast for 2011. Nonetheless, market maturity and existing high spending levels would prevent this from translating into a huge upward revision to our consumer spending projections. |
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