Brazil Oil and Gas Report Q4 2010

Business Intelligence
September 23, 2010
122 Pages - SKU: BTAI2831106
License type:
Table of Contents Search inside this report Related Reports
Countries covered: Brazil

The latest Brazil Oil & Gas Report from BMI forecasts that the country will account for 33.47% of Latin American regional oil demand by 2014, while providing 28.22% of supply. Latin American regional oil use will average an estimated 7.76mn barrels per day (b/d) in 2010. It should rise to 7.91mn b/d in 2011 and reach 8.41mn b/d by 2014. Regional oil production in 2010 should average an estimated 10.05mn b/d. It is set to rise to 10.63mn b/d by 2014. Oil exports have been slipping, because demand growth has exceeded the pace of supply expansion. In 2001, the region was exporting an average of 3.37mn b/d. This total falls to an estimated 2.29mn b/d in 2010 and is forecast to slip further to 2.22mn b/d in 2014. The principal exporters will be Mexico, Venezuela, Ecuador and Brazil.

In terms of natural gas, the region in 2010 will consume an estimated 209bn cubic metres (bcm), with demand of 252bcm targeted for 2014. Production of an estimated 221bcm in 2010 should reach 247bcm in 2014, and implies 5bcm of net imports at the end of the period. Brazil’s share of gas consumption in 2010 is an estimated 10.81%, while its share of production is put at 6.33%. By 2014, its share of gas consumption is forecast to be 14.28%, with the country accounting for 8.91% of supply. For 2010 as a whole, we continue to assume an average OPEC basket price of US$83.00/bbl, +36.4% year-on-year (y-o-y). Risk is now clearly on the downside, thanks to the slow progress made during June. However, a full-year outturn in excess of US$80 remains a strong possibility and we see no need to review our assumptions at this point. The 2010 US WTI price is now put at US$87.63/bbl. BMI is assuming an OPEC basket price of US$85.00/bbl in 2011, with WTI averaging US$89.74. Our central assumption for 2012 and beyond is an OPEC price averaging US$90.00/bbl, delivering WTI at just over US$95.00.

For 2010, the BMI assumption for premium unleaded gasoline is an average global price of US$95.45/bbl. The overall y-o-y rise in 2010 gasoline prices is put at 36%. Gasoil in 2010 is expected to average US$93.23/bbl. The full-year outturn represents a 35% increase from the 2009 level. For 2010, the annual jet price level is forecast to be US$95.90/bbl. This compares with US$70.66/bbl in 2009. The 2010 average naphtha price is put by BMI at US$83.53/bbl, up 41% from the previous year’s level. Brazilian real GDP in 2010 is forecast by BMI to rise by 6.0%, followed by an average annual increase of 4.2% in 2010-2014. Partly privatised deepwater specialist Petrobras will continue to team up with international oil companies (IOCs) in supporting output growth efforts and will dominate domestic production. We are assuming oil and gas liquids production of at least 3.00mn b/d by 2014, with the country expected to pump 2.18mn b/d in 2010. Beyond the weakness of 2009, oil consumption is forecast to increase by around 3.0% per annum to 2014, implying demand of 2.82mn b/d by the end of the forecast period. The net export capability would therefore be 725,000b/d by 2014. Gas production is forecast to increase from an estimated 14bcm in 2010 to 22bcm over the period to 2014, with consumption climbing from an estimated 23bcm to 36bcm.

Between 2010 and 2019, we are forecasting an increase in Brazilian oil production of 97.3%, with crude volumes rising steadily to an estimated 4.30mn b/d by the end of the 10-year forecast period. Oil consumption between 2010 and 2019 is set to increase by 27.3%, with growth slowing to an assumed 2.5% per annum towards the end of the period and the country using 3.15mn b/d by 2019. Net export potential rises from 0.20mn b/d to 1.69mn b/d during the period. Gas production is expected to rise gradually, from an estimated 14bcm in 2010 to 35bcm by 2019. With demand growth of 103.5%, this provides a net import requirement falling from a forecast peak of 14bcm in 2014 to 11.0bcm by 2019. Details of BMI’s 10-year forecasts can be found in the appendix to this report.

Brazil holds first place in BMI’s composite Business Environment (BE) ratings, which combine upstream and downstream scores. The country has also retained its first place in BMI’s updated upstream Business Environment ratings, having pulled away from Venezuela. Brazil’s score benefits from the size of the oil resource base, output growth prospects, attractive licensing regime and competitive environment. Although some weak points exist in the country’s risk ratings, its position at the head of the regional league table continues to look unassailable. Brazil also holds the top slot of BMI’s downstream Business Environment ratings, three points clear of Colombia. This reflects its region-beating oil demand, substantial refining capacity and competitive environment. We see no obvious threat of Colombia catching Brazil over the medium term.


More Brazil Petroleum Reports

Brazil Oil Refining Market (2012) Outlook to 2020- High Gasoline and Diesel Demand Encouraging Investments in New Refineries by OG Analysis
“Brazil Refining Market Outlook to 2020” from OGAnalysis is a complete source of information and analysis on Brazil refining industry and is a compulsory source ...

Regional Benchmarking of Crude Oil Industry 2011-2020: BRIC Countries and US, December 2011 by Lucintel
Brazil, Russia, India, and China (BRIC) play crucial roles in global economic development,climate change, and primary energy usage. Strong economic growth and low per capita ...

Transport via Pipelines in Brazil: ISIC 603 by Euromonitor International
Euromonitor International's Industrial reports provide a 360 degree view of an industry. TheIndustrial market report offers a comprehensive guide to the size and shape of ...

Brazil Oil Markets, 2011 by GlobalData
Brazil Oil Markets, 2011 Summary This profile is the essential source for top-level energy industry data and information. The report provides an overview ...

Crude Oil Production in Brazil by MarketLine
Introduction Crude Oil Production in Brazil industry profile provides top-line qualitative and quantitative summary information including: market size (value and volume 2006-10, and forecast to 2015). ...

See all reports like this >>

More Brazil Reports

Homewares in Brazil by Euromonitor International
The performance of homewares has been driven by the growing number of new dwellings, especially in metropolitan cities, as well as increasing disposable income, mainly ...

D&B Country RiskLine Report: Brazil by Dun & Bradstreet Inc.
This D&B Country RiskLine Report will help you analyze the risks, opportunities and likely payment delays when doing business in this country. It includes ...

Soft Drinks: Advanced Emerging Markets (Brazil, Hungary, Mexico, Poland, South Africa, Taiwan) Industry Guide by MarketLine
Datamonitor's Soft Drinks: Advanced Emerging Markets (Brazil, Hungary, Mexico, Poland, South Africa, Taiwan) Industry Guide is an essential resource for top-level data and analysis covering ...

D&B Country Report: Brazil by Dun & Bradstreet Inc.
D&B Country Report. Comprehensive information for evaluating risks and opportunities when trading or investing in this country. Providing critical information and analysis on ...

Country Report Brazil February 2011 by Economist Intelligence Unit
Country Reports analyse political and economic trends in featured countries. They show you exactly how national, regional and global events will affect your business in ...

See all reports like this >>

 

Share this report


Other tasks

 
 

Research Assistance

Ask a question
 

Related Markets


Petroleum Reports

 
 

Free Alert Me service

Receive bi-weekly email alerts on new market research

Sign Up Today!