The Post Carbon Landscape: Alternative pathways to a low carbon landscape

Over the last 30 years more and more scientists and economists have come to understand that the world is a complex dynamic system rather than a linear Newtonian one. The world of finance experienced the extreme effects of the workings of a complex dynamic system as relatively isolated events on the world stage were amplified rapidly into features which threatened the totality of the global economic system. We are currently living through the aftermath of this extreme turbulence. The world of energy is about to enter an era of ever increasing complexity and interdependence as patterns of demand shift through such changes as a moves to the electrification of transport, as populations grow, and as rising economic prosperity spurs on demand for energy based services. What the size and shape of demand will be is highly uncertain. What the portfolio of sources will be to meet that demand is also highly uncertain with the advent of non-traditional sources of oil and gas, the growth of renewable generation, the potential rise of distributed community based generation, the in-home generation potential, and the use of cars and homes as energy sinks and storage. In addition we see the gas and electricity markets moving from a world defined by energy and metering to one defined by communications and IT (together with energy and metering). Picturing this world as a system is the essential first step in understanding what may happen. This report starts by providing the reader with a high level system model to enable understanding of how the elements in the landscape interact. Rather than trying to predict the future, the report then looks at the bandwidth of uncertainty in demand and supply to give the reader a feel as to what the limits of outcome might be. The report then examines two scenarios, possible future worlds, which could unfold. These provide useful backcloths against which to interpret the developments we see around us today.