Executive Summary
Evolution of the bakery market
Product, country and category opportunities
On-the-go consumption
Organic bakery
Survey results
Chapter 1 Evolution of the bakery market
Summary
Introduction
Consumer drivers - the mega trends
More individual and time-pressured life fuels demand for convenience
Changing household structure
Increasing numbers of working women
Changing working habits
More individualised and fragmented consumption
More control - in terms of ease, speed and portion format
The need for convenience collides with increasing health awareness
‘You are what you eat’ - actively managing health through diet
Consumers opt for better overall health as opposed to dieting
Medical concerns - obesity is rising
The visual society - managing physical appearance
Men are just as concerned as women about appearance
Need for more reassurance - concern about food safety and the environment
More control - through different product alternatives
More control - through better and more user-friendly information
The over 50s are a prime market for health products
The need for ‘food problem’ solutions collides with a desire for pleasure
Super foods - increasingly high expectations from the ‘eating experience’
More, more, more - more fun, more indulgent and more adventurous
Manufacturer drivers
Introduction
Product innovation
Improvements in the production process allow new products
Packaging innovation
Visual appearance remains the main focus
Variety in package size is needed
Increasing the product’s shelf life
Environmental considerations
Labeling
Retailer and distribution drivers
Grocery multiples
Higher margins attract private label
In-store bakeries in the virtual supermarket
Emerging channels
Speciality stores
New HoReCa opportunities
New retail channels
Sales of bakery products via mail order
Implications for the bakery industry
Chapter 2 Product, country and category opportunities
Summary
Introduction
Product
Health
Health - functional and fortified
Health - low and light
Health - natural and organic
Convenience
Bakery as an impulse purchase
Convenience - snacking
Convenience - bake off
Rise of in-store bakeries
Assessing the fit between bake-off products and consumer drivers
Most of the UK supermarket chains have started running in-store bakeries
In-store bakeries make up for 6% of Tesco’s sales
Sainsbury’s have pioneered the bake-off market in the UK
In-store bakeries gain further popularity in the US
ISBs are gaining market share from the traditional baker
Pleasure/Indulgence
Pleasure - ethnic and exotic
Pleasure - indulgent and premium
Pleasure - novelty and fun
Category
Health mega trend gaining dominance
Pleasure mega trend continues to be important
Not all convenient bakery products are positioned as snacks
Bread and rolls innovation
Indulgent and premium
Health
Bread substitutes innovation
Low and light
Indulgent and premium
Breakfast cereals innovation
Functional and fortified
Novel and fun
Cake and pastries innovation
Indulgent and premium
Novel and fun
Cereal bars innovation
Savoury biscuits innovation
Low and light
Sweet biscuits innovation
Low & light
Category conclusions
Country
Fastest growing developed markets
Key trends
France
Germany
Italy
Spain
UK
US
Japan
Australia
Top 10 fastest growing markets
Taiwan
India
Philippines
Denmark
Hong Kong
China
Malaysia
Portugal
South Korea
Austria
Chapter 3 On-the-go consumption
Summary
Introduction
Defining on-the-go consumption
Drivers of on-the-go consumption
Just-in-time society
Affluence levels
Cultural tendency to snack
‘On-the-go’ country assessment
‘On-the-go’ bakery market
Developing a strategy for ‘on-the-go’ bakery products
Chapter 4 Organic bakery
Summary
Introduction
Defining organics
EU Regulation 2092/91
Inspection
Labeling
Certification
Market overview
From little league to mainstream
Predicting the future - the organic market potential model
German consumers top organic spending
UK - forecast to witness rapid growth
Organic remains a primary agricultural concern in Sweden
French market set for 13% year on year growth
The Netherlands have benefited from increased retailer support
Organics have yet to take off in the US
Organic market drivers
Market driver analysis
Improved health awareness - achieving personal wellbeing
The organic revolution - the effects of BSE
The organic market was in the right place at the right time
Facing a future of food scares - the self-enforcing cycle of consumer fear
Environmental concern
Government and retailer support
Organic bakery products
Developing a strategy for organic bakery products
Chapter 5 Survey results
Summary
Introduction
Product upgrading and true innovation
Key consumer groups and eating occasions
Opportunities
Future packaging
Conclusion
Chapter 6 Appendix
Data tables
Glossary
Index
List of Figures
Figure 1.1: Bakery market drivers
Figure 1.2: Prevalence of obesity in four key markets, 1990-2010
Figure 1.3: Proportion of population over 50 in six key markets, 1994-2006
Figure 1.4: Visits abroad by country, 1995-2005
Figure 1.5: The effect of consumer drivers on bakery products
Figure 2.6: Functional and fortified product example
Figure 2.7: Low and light product example
Figure 2.8: Organic product example
Figure 2.9: Snacking product example
Figure 2.10: Anatomy of bake-off supply
Figure 2.11: Assessment of bake-off in terms of the three mega trends
Figure 2.12: Ethnic and exotic product example
Figure 2.13: Indulgent and premium product example
Figure 2.14: Four key elements to novel and fun products
Figure 2.15: Novel and fun product example
Figure 2.16: Relative importance of each key trend within new bakery launches Oct 00-Oct 01
Figure 2.17: Trends in the bread and rolls category, Oct 00-Oct 01
Figure 2.18: Key bread and roll launches, Oct 00-Oct 01
Figure 2.19: Trends in the bread substitute category, Oct 00-Oct 01
Figure 2.20: Key bread substitute launches, Oct 00-Oct 01
Figure 2.21: Trends in the breakfast cereal category, Oct 00-Oct 01
Figure 2.22: Key breakfast cereal launches, Oct 00-Oct 01
Figure 2.23: Trends in the cakes and pastries category, Oct 00-Oct 01
Figure 2.24: Key cake and pastry launches, Oct 00-Oct 01
Figure 2.25: Trends in the cereal bar category, Oct 00-Oct 01
Figure 2.26: Key cereal bar launches, Oct 00-Oct 01
Figure 2.27: Trends in the savoury biscuit category, Oct 00-Oct 01
Figure 2.28: Key savoury biscuit launches, Oct 00-Oct 01
Figure 2.29: Trends in the sweet biscuit category, Oct 00-Oct 01
Figure 2.30: Key sweet biscuit launches, Oct 00-Oct 01
Figure 3.31: Matrix of consumption occasions
Figure 3.32: On-the-go consumption occasions by primary action
Figure 3.33: Consumer needs on-the-go - a framework for product positioning
Figure 3.34: Push and pull drivers of on-the-go consumption
Figure 3.35: ‘On-the-go’ bakery sales by country, 2000-05
Figure 4.36: Organic market driver assessment
Figure 4.37: Bakery moves into premium organic products
Figure 5.38: New product launches to 2006
Figure 5.39: Important target consumer groups for bakery to 2006
Figure 5.40: Important bakery eating occasions to 2006
Figure 5.41: Importance of innovation in bakery products to 2006
Figure 5.42: Importance of bakery innovation to 2006
Figure 5.43: Bakery market value growth opportunities to 2006
Figure 5.44: Bakery packaging formats to 2006
List of Tables
Table 1.1: Household size, in average numbers of people, 1995-2000
Table 1.2: Employment rate for 15-64 year old females as a % of married women
Table 1.3: Breakup of traditional meal structures
Table 1.4: Survey of low and light use among US adults: by gender
Table 1.5: Survey of top five reasons for low and light use among US adults
Table 1.6: Prevalence of obesity in four key markets, 1990-2010
Table 1.7: Proportion of population over 50 in six key markets, 1994-2006
Table 1.8: Growth rates of over and under 50s in six key markets, 1994-2006
Table 2.9: Total category volume sales, Europe* and the US, 1997-2005
Table 2.10: Percentages of trend positionings with each category
Table 2.11: Volumes of key country-categories (Kg m), 1997-2001
Table 2.12: France, category volume sales (Kg m), 1997-2001
Table 2.13: Germany, category volume sales (Kg m), 1997-2001
Table 2.14: Italy, category volume sales (Kg m), 1997-2001
Table 2.15: Spain, category volume sales (Kg m), 1997-2001
Table 2.16: UK, category volume sales (Kg m), 1997-2001
Table 2.17: US, category volume sales (Kg m), 1997-2001
Table 2.18: Japan, category volume sales (Kg m), 1997-2001
Table 2.19: Australia, category volume sales (Kg m), 1997-2001
Table 2.20: Top 10 fastest growing bakery markets, volume sales (Kg m), 1997-2001
Table 2.21: GDP per capita at PPP, (US$/head), 1995-99
Table 2.22: Taiwan, category sales volumes (Kg m), 1997-2001
Table 2.23: India, category sales volumes (Kg m), 1997-2001
Table 2.24: Philippines, category sales volumes (Kg m), 1997-2001
Table 2.25: Denmark, category sales volumes (Kg m), 1997-2001
Table 2.26: Hong Kong, category sales volumes (Kg m), 1997-2001
Table 2.27: China, category sales volumes (Kg m), 1997-2001
Table 2.28: Malaysia, category sales volumes (Kg m), 1997-2001
Table 2.29: Portugal, category sales volumes (Kg m), 1997-2001
Table 2.30: South Korea, category sales volumes (Kg m), 1997-2001
Table 2.31: Austria category sales volumes (Kg m), 1997-2001
Table 3.32: On-the-go bakery sales by country, 2000-05
Table 4.33: Organic market potential in Europe and the US
Table 4.34: Organic bakery and cereals market, 1996-2005
Table 6.35: Western European sales volumes (Kg m), 1997-2001
Table 6.36: Eastern European sales volumes (Kg m), 1997-2001
Table 6.37: American sales volumes (Kg m), 1997-2001
Table 6.38: Asia-Pacific sales volumes (Kg m), 1997-2001
