Top Frontier Oil Countries: Potential, exploration opportunities and risks

Report overview

Economic growth in non-OECD countries, particularly in developing countries such as China and India, and a predicted increase in vehicle numbers to 2bn by 2030, are the chief factors in forecast growth in global energy demand, forecast to grow by 40% by 2030 compared with 2008 levels. Despite increasing concerns about emissions from the burning of fossil fuels and the effects on the global climate and increased investment in renewable energy sources, fossil fuels are forecast to account for more than three quarters of this energy demand growth. Of the main sources of primary energy; oil, coal, natural gas, nuclear, hydropower and biomass, coal will see the largest absolute rise, of about 53%. Demand for oil is forecast to rise by 24% to105m barrels per day in 2030, while natural gas demand is forecast to rise by an even greater volume, predicted to reach 4.4trn cubic meters a year by 2030. This sustained demand for oil and gas is against a backdrop of maturing oil and gas fields in many of the world’s ‘traditional’ producing areas such as the North Sea and the Gulf of Mexico, and concerns about peak oil. In addition, a large proportion of the world’s proven oil and gas reserves are held by a small number of countries, and evidence of resource nationalism and tighter criteria for foreign investment have led to increased concerns about energy security. Many of the world’s key producing fields are now maturing or are seriously depleted, and the continued demand for new oil and gas supplies means governments and companies are looking to new, and often completely unknown, regions to replace reserves. Some of these areas are believed to contain substantial undiscovered and undeveloped resources but many of them pose serious political and technological challenges to exploration and development.

Key findings

Over three quarters of overall energy demand growth up to 2030 is forecast to come from fossil fuels, despite increased investment in renewable energy sources. Over 50m bpd of the 78m bpd of oil forecast to be produced in 2030 will have to come from resources yet to be discovered or developed

In Africa, the Gulf of Guinea alone is forecast to meet a quarter of total US energy imports by 2020. Sierra Leone, Sao Tomé and Principe, and Liberia are emerging as high potential areas for investment in the west of the continent as companies look beyond major producers Nigeria and Angola. The joint development zone between Sao Tomé and Nigeria could contain up to 11bn barrels

In eastern Africa, following successful exploration in the Albertine basin, Uganda holds the potential to become a net oil exporter

The Arctic could contain undiscovered resources of 90bn bls of and 1,670trn cu ft of natural gas, representing 13% and 30% respectively of the world’s yet-to-be-found oil and gas

Technological developments such as wide-azimuth seismic acquisition and floating LNG will play key roles in successful exploration and development of frontier oil and gas reserves

Use this report to

• Understand the drivers of the need to explore for oil and gas in new and largelyunknown areas
• Analyse the opportunities available for investment consideration through examination of the data available and an exploration history of the selected frontier areas
• Be better-informed of both the potential and the challenges presented by exploration in frontier areas, including the associated political and technological risks
• Assess the attraction and the risks for your company of investing in these frontier areas
• Benefit from the report’s information to help make your company’s next international upstream investment decision

• Sustained fossil fuels reliance: Despite climate change concerns and increasing investment in renewable energy sources such as wind, solar and biofuels, fossil fuels will account for over two-thirds of overall energy demand up to 2030
• Maturing traditional producing areas: Many of the world’s traditional producing regions are maturing or depleted, meaning oil and gas companies now need to venture into new and unknown areas, ‘frontier’ regions, in order to look for new oil and gas resources to replace produced reserves and meet continued demand
• Frontier equals high-potential, high-risk: Frontier areas are often data-poor, being barely or completely unexplored. Many are believed to hold substantial undiscovered oil/gas resources, but pose political, socio-economic, geographical and technological challenges that may present serious barriers to commercial investment
• Technology opens up frontiers: Technological developments in the oil and gas sector, including significant advances in seismic to aid reservoir analysis; deep and ultra-deepwater drilling capabilities; growing liquefied natural gas (LNG) capacity and ‘mega-pipelines’

• By how much is demand for oil and gas forecast to grow in the next twenty years? How much of this forecast demand will need to come from resources yet to be discovered?
• To what degree can successful frontier exploration change the concept of ‘peak oil’?
• Why do oil and gas companies need to explore in new and unknown frontier areas?
• Which are the most promising ‘new’ countries in West Africa for exploration? ‘What is their undiscovered resource potential and how risky is investment?
• How likely is a resolution to the sovereignty dispute over Western Sahara, believed to hold substantial oil resources, and should companies sign for licences with Morocco or the territory’s exiled government?
• What discoveries have been made in the ultradeep waters of the Gulf of Mexico and what potential do its deep and ultra-deep-waters hold?
• Is going deeper in the Gulf of Mexico a better bet than new areas elsewhere in the US?
• What is the resource potential of the Falklands? Will drilling there lead to a repeat of the 1982 Falklands conflict?
• Which basins contain most of the Arctic’s undiscovered resources?